Monthly Archives: March 2011

Chaos in Technical Analysis and Backtesting – Part I: Close vs. Adjusted Close

This is the first in a series of posts about the impact of data adjustments on technical analysis studies and backtesting, as well as, of the pitfalls of trading system development due to incompatibilities and/or conflicts between data series and analysis techniques. Use … Continue reading

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Bill Gross Sold His Holdings of US Treasuries – What Does Technical Analysis Tell Us About His Move?

Bill Gross, the founder of PIMCO, sold his Treasury bond holdings late last month as reported by Bloomberg. The manager of the world’s largest bond fund said that he thinks yields are low and he may buy Treasuries again when yields … Continue reading

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Time to Hire a Monkey? Not Really

Recently I have noticed a renewed interest in a few blogs and forums about “monkey style trading”. This type of trading usually involves coin tosses, percent stop-losses for risk management and trailing stops for profit taking. This is how it works in principle, according to its proponents … Continue reading

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A Strange DJI Pattern? Not Really

A friend who is a hedge fund manager called me this morning and ask me to look at the pattern that has formed during the last 10 days in the chart of Dow Jones Industrial average. At first glance, he thought it looked like a … Continue reading

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Performance of Three S&P 500 Patterns From My 1999 Book

A few posts back I presented a basic introduction to price patterns. This post is an answer to those that claim that price patterns are random formations that fail immediately after they are employed in trading and thus have no … Continue reading

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