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Monthly Archives: October 2011
ETF Trends – Week of October 31, 2011
As of the close of Friday, October 28, 2011, there are 9 trend changes in the ETF trend state table in relation to last week’s report. Either the old and familiar market mode has again emerged, with rising stock indices, commodities, currencies, … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Analysis, ETF Analysis
Tagged DBC, FXE, GLD, QQQ, quantitative easing, SLV, SPY, USO
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Contrarian Signals from Two Indicators
The market rallied yesterday due to reports that European dealers have finally finished a crash course on “haircutting” and are ready to work with their first customer. The issue is who will be next. It is quite unlikely that after … Continue reading
An Interesting Pattern in SPY With a High Win Rate
As of the close of Monday, October 24, 2011, there is a 5-bar pattern formed on the daily chart of SPY that has historically a high win rate for profit target and stop-loss equal to 1%.
More on Short-term Patterns With High Reward-to-Risk Ratio
Last week I briefly responded to a question that has come up several times recently about the difficulty in finding price patterns with high reward-to-risk ratio. I showed with an example using QQQ daily data that such patterns do exit. Here, I … Continue reading
Posted in Price Action Lab Patterns
Tagged Price Action Lab, price patterns, reward to risk ratio, SPY
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ETF Trends – Week of October 24, 2011
As of the close of Friday, October 21, 2011, there are only two changes in the ETF trend state table in relation to the close of the previous week as stock market indices, bonds, currencies and commodities remained on their short-term trend and away … Continue reading
Posted in ETF Analysis, Risk Management
Tagged consecutive losers, DBC, FXE, GLD, MEI indicator, QQQ, risk management, SLV, SPY, TLT, USO
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QQQ and SPY: Inside Day Pattern After an Outside Day Pattern
As of the close of Wednesday, October 19, 2011, in both QQQ and SPY daily charts there is an inside day pattern formed following an ouside day pattern. Both patterns in succession show that market participants are cautious and undecided about future market direction. … Continue reading
Posted in ETF Analysis, Price Action Lab Patterns
Tagged inside day, outside day, Price Action Lab, QQQ, SPY
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Short-term Patterns With High Reward-to-Risk Ratio
A question that has come up a few times recently is about the dififculty in finding high reward-to-risk setups in various markets like equities, futures and forex or even whether such setups exist at all. I think it is an important question … Continue reading
Posted in Price Action Lab Patterns
Tagged Price Action Lab, price patterns, profit factor, QQQ, reward to risk ratio
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ETF Trends – Week of October 17, 2011
As of the close of Friday, October 14, 2011, there are six changes in the ETF trend state table in relation to the close of the previous week. All six changes are related to the medium-term trend. The short and longer-term trends are unchanged … Continue reading
SPY, QQQ – Pin Bars and Gaps in the Charts Could Force a Correction
Another rally yesterday but with very different price action from the day before. Yesterday, although the market opened higher with a gap, the rally lost momentum and by the end of the day there was a pin bar formed on the daily chart … Continue reading
Posted in ETF Analysis, Technical Analysis
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QQQ Closed Above its 200 SMA but SPY Lags Behind. The AAPL Effect.
The Nasdaq-100 Index ETF (QQQ) closed above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) yesterday. Nobody is celebrating because this is the second time this ETF breaks above its SMA(200) since it dropped below it on August 4, 2011.