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Monthly Archives: November 2011
S&P 500 Working on a Potential Inverse Head and Shoulders Formation
A potential inverse head and shoulders chart pattern is currently under formation in S&P 500 after yesterday’s price action. If this pattern finally forms it will signal another rally, possibly to a 4-year high, but a few important obstacles must be cleared first.
Price Action Lab Alert: Eight Consecutive Lower Closes In SPY is not a Significant Sample
Several analysts over the weekend made reference to the price pattern of 8 consecutive lower closes formed in SPY and based on that they are betting on a short-term recovery. Historically, the pattern has occurred only 5 times since this ETF started … Continue reading
ETF Trends – Week of November 28, 2011
As of the close of Friday, November 25, 2011, there are only 3 changes in the ETF trend state table from the week before. As expected, the short-term trends that emerged were maintained and the changes regard only the medium and … Continue reading
Dow 4,000? What Technical Analysis Says or Doesn’t Say About Such Possibility
Recently I read an analysis about the possibility of Dow dropping to 4,000 or even as low as 1,000. The claim was that technical analysis of long-term charts supports such a possibility. I argue here that it is not pure technical analysis that … Continue reading
The Many Faces of Trading Expectancy
Some authors insist on defining trading profitability using the notion of expected value or expectation, a.k.a expectancy. However, it would only suffice for them to say that a trading system, trading method, or even investment program, is profitable if the net … Continue reading
Posted in Trading System Analysis
Tagged average trade, expectancy, expected gain, profit factor
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Does It Look Like June of 2008 All Over Again? Not Yet.
In many blogs and investment sites there is a talk about the stunning resemblance of the price action in S&P 500 index back in May-June of 2008 and just before the market collapse that followed, to the current price action pattern. I argue here … Continue reading
Stock Market: A Short-term Reversal to the Upside is Highly Probable
As of the close of Monday, November 21, 2011, price action patterns and directional probability calculations point to a reversal to the upside. It is not clear at this point whether a bottom is being formed at these levels.
ETF Technical Analysis as of Friday, November 18, 2011
As of the close of Friday, November 18, 2001, there are more failures of traditional chart patterns and downside breaks of rising channels. In SPY we have a failed symmetrical triangle, in GLD and SLV downside breaks of rising channels and in USO … Continue reading
Posted in ETF Analysis, Technical Analysis
Tagged chart pattern recognition, GLD, rising channel, SLV, SPY, symmetrical triangle, USO
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ETF Trends – Week of November 21, 2011
As of the close of Friday, November 18, 2011, there are significant changes in the ETF trend state table. The dominant sideways motion of last week has shifted from the short-term to the medium-term, providing an indication that new trends may … Continue reading
Posted in ETF Analysis, Technical Analysis
Tagged DBC, FXE, GLD, QQQ, SLV, SPY, TLT, USO
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Apple Inc. (AAPL) Technical Analysis – Stock Near Major Support Level
The stock of Apple Inc. closed at $374.94 on Friday, November 18, 2011, a price that is $12.13% lower than its intraday all-time high of $426.70 on October 17 of this year. Before marking the all-time high, the stock tested on an … Continue reading