Monthly Archives: February 2012

Outside Day Upside Breakout in QQQ

Posted on February 29, 2012 by Michael Harris

After a rare formation of two consecutive outside days, an upside breakout followed in QQQ. The resulting outside day upside breakout pattern has been historically a short signal for profit targets in the 3% range but with a low winning bias.

Posted in ETF Analysis, Price Action Lab Patterns | Tagged , , | Comments Off

Rare Patterns of Two Consecutive Outside Days in SPY and QQQ

Posted on February 28, 2012 by Michael Harris

These patterns are indeed extremely rare. They have formed after some other recent rare patterns. Maybe it is because this is a rare time period.

Posted in ETF Analysis, Price Action Lab Patterns | Tagged , , , | Comments Off

Probability of Rising Commodity Prices Causing a Stock Market Crash is Very Low

Posted on February 27, 2012 by Michael Harris

Some analysts have argued that the recent rise in commodity prices and especially the rally in crude oil prices may cause a stock market crash. However, the current situation does not compare to the conditions present in 2007 and 2008.

Posted in Economic Analysis, Market Statistics | Tagged , , , | Comments Off

SPY Correction is Possible

Posted on February 27, 2012 by Michael Harris

SPY is in overbought territory and facing a resistance level. In addition, my proprietary indicator, the MEI, shows loss of momentum and diverges to the downside. My estimate is for a 2% correction in the next few days so that the market … Continue reading →

Posted in ETF Analysis, Technical Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off

ETF Trends – Week of February 27, 2012

Posted on February 26, 2012 by Michael Harris

Index and precious metals ETFs have reached important resistance levels. Out of the 8 major ETFs tracked, 4 are overbought and two are approaching overbought territory. This spells volatility ahead. The whipsaws that will follow will facilitate another transfer of wealth from naive … Continue reading →

Posted in ETF Analysis | Tagged , , , , , , , | Comments Off

Stock Scanning Using the p-Indicator

Posted on February 26, 2012 by Michael Harris

The p-Indicator allows a quantitative approach to scanning stocks for short-term high probability setups. Here I provide an example of how this particular indicator can be used to scan the DOW-30 stocks on a daily basis. 

Posted in Price Action Lab Patterns | Tagged , | Comments Off

GLD and SLV at Crucial Resistance Levels

Posted on February 25, 2012 by Michael Harris

GLD is about $3 away from its November 2011 high of $175.46 and SLV closed just above its 200-day simple moving average and its down-trendline from the high of April of last year.

Posted in ETF Analysis, Technical Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index Gaining Momentum

Posted on February 25, 2012 by Michael Harris

After forming a rare double inside day pattern two weeks ago, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index ended last week up 3.5%.  The short-term target is the 200-day simple moving average currently at 2519.

Posted in Technical Analysis | Tagged | Comments Off

Australian S&P/ASX200 Index Breaks Above Resistance

Posted on February 25, 2012 by Michael Harris

The S&P/ASX200 index mamaged to break above its 200-day simple moving average following an upward breakout from a symmetrical triangle but a move towards 4400 will require a buildup of momentum. 

Posted in Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | Comments Off

Another Chart Pattern Failure Worth Mentioning and Some Typical Arguments of Technical Analysts

Posted on February 24, 2012 by Michael Harris

It took just one week to invalidate a typical reversal rounding top formed in SLV, the Silver ETF. This marks another major failure of technical analysis, one of the many witnessed in the last couple of years. Should traders stop using this … Continue reading →

Posted in Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | Comments Off