Price action during last week caused the fewest changes in the ETF trend state table and in relation to the previous week that I have encountered since I started publishing this report. Very few changes are usually present when market trends are smooth and persistent or just before a major change is going to happen.
In this case I think it is the latter. I say this because one of the changes is in the short term trend of SPY, which was downgraded from an uptrend to sideways motion. Besides, the stock market is overbought.
ETF Trend State Table
| ETF | Short-term | Medium-term | Longer-term | OB/OS |
| SPY | SW- | UP | UP | * |
| QQQ | UP | UP | UP | OB |
| GLD | SW | SW | SW | |
| SLV | SW | SW | SW | |
| FXE | SW | DN | DN | |
| TLT | DN | SW | SW | |
| USO | SW+ | SW | SW | |
| DBC | UP | SW | DN |
“SW” indicates no trend, ”+” indicates a new upward trend change, “-” indicates a new downward trend change, “OB” means overbought and “OS” means oversold. “OB-” means close to becoming overbought and “OS+” means close to becoming oversold. The ‘*’ means that the corresponding market is under watch for developing conditions.
Summary of trend changes
Short-term: SPY was downgraded to sideways motion and USO was upgraded to sideways motion.
Medium-term: No changes.
Longer-term: No changes.
Number of changes on the trend table: 2
Overbought/Oversold Conditions: SPY undex watch. QQQ in overbought territory.
Disclosure: no relevant positions.
