I received an email message from a reader of another blog where Peter Brandt calls me a Daffy Duck and a nut case. I was surprised. I did not expect this from Peter. Yes, people can argue about things and can be on opposite sides. But calling a fellow trader and StockTwits member with such names is quite unexpected. What is funny about this is that it has evolved from a reply I made to a post by Peter where he called for a possible drop of Dow Jones to 4,000 last year.
This was the post by Peter Brandt to which I replied with another post. I think I only said the obvious, in that technical analysis does not have prediction powers and since there is only one distorted pattern on a very long term chart, there is no way to evaluate the call statistically.
My reply was strictly limited to technical points. Now, I may be right or I may be wrong. I am willing to discuss this. What I do not understand is the name calling. I want to ensure Peter that I respect him and I will never call him a nut case and a Daffy Duck anywhere, like he is calling me here, in the comment section (by the way, I have saved screenshots of his comments in case they are removed from that blog). If he feels good calling me that, it is fine, he can go on.
Now, as far as my post the other day quoted by The Reformed Broker, I would like to ask some to carefully read posts and try to understand them before impulsively reacting. I said in that post that there are a lot of robots that create market moves and technical analysis simply tries to predict them. But it seems that some do not understand that markets do not move by themselves and it takes participants to affect the moves.
The argument that HFT does not affect technical analysis because it is the macros that do is a red herring. If we are talking about long-term moves, then technical analysis cannot provide any real value because it deals with prices that have factored in past information but not future unknown information, like after 3 or 6 months. The real use of technical analysis for most people is for intraday/swing/position trading where price moves occur in the absence of new information that changes the fundamentals significantly, i.e. the moves are of technical nature. But that is exactly the domain of HFT. In that domain HFT robots can create a lot of failed signals for technical analysts.
If you do not agree, I am willing to hear counter-arguments. Calling me a nut case and a Daffy Duck is an ad hominen attack known to take place in the absence of real argumentation. As I said, I will never call anyone such names. I respect everyone, especially those that have different opinions than me. Peter I wish you good luck