If the short-term double bottom at $123.75 in TLT is broken to the downside, testing of 200-day simple moving average support near $120.25 is quite possible. By that time, the late long crowd will be out and the bond market may decide which direction to take.
TLT is not oversold yet although close as it may be seen from the daily chart above. Yesterday, prices found support at the low of last Thursday at $123.75. A test of 200-day simple moving average support is quite possible and by that time most late longs will be out and the bond market will have pocketed their losses.
Disclosure: no relevant position at the time of this post.