Monthly Archives: November 2012

Stock Market Approaching High Risk Territory

Posted on November 30, 2012 by Michael Harris

The high risk territory in S&P 500 index is now between 1,422 and 1,460 points and in SPY between $142 and $146. Anything can happen inside that territory, including a rally to new multi-year highs, a start of another correction or choppy … Continue reading →

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Stock Market Bears Are Ready to Surrender

Posted on November 29, 2012 by Michael Harris

They can never say they were not warned. They got too excited when the 200-day moving average was violated on November 14 but now are about to panic once again. Either you have faith in this market or you stay away. … Continue reading →

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Price Action Lab Alert for Thursday, November 29, 2012

Posted on November 29, 2012 by Price Action Lab

Yesterday’s alert (click here) was for a day trade in GLD, enter at the open and exit at the close. The ETF gapped down at the open and recovered during the day and gained $1.12 with respect to the opening price. It … Continue reading →

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Price Action Lab Alert for Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Posted on November 28, 2012 by Price Action Lab

Today’s signal is for a very popular ETF for entry at the open and exit at the close of the trading session, i.e. a day trade. 

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Chaos in Technical Analysis and Backtesting – Part III: Split-adjusted Data

Posted on November 27, 2012 by Michael Harris

Parts I and II of the series Chaos in Technical Analysis and Backtesting discussed some of the problems that arise in the context of technical analysis and backtesting when using split and dividend adjusted data. In this post I discuss the … Continue reading →

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Bond Bears Are Ready to Give Up

Posted on November 27, 2012 by Michael Harris

This probably means that a bond bear market is coming closer because even big names in the investment industry seem to have given up and are adding to their bond portfolios. However, a rapid rise in yields will not affect pension … Continue reading →

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Backtesting the p-Indicator

Posted on November 24, 2012 by Michael Harris

The objective of this article is to present backtesting results that demonstrate the potential of the p-indicator in providing a short-term trading edge. The motivation for the article was an email I received recently by a trader who asked about … Continue reading →

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Short Squeeze and Bear Slaughtering in Progress

Posted on November 24, 2012 by Michael Harris

Life will not be easy for bears even if in the market will resume its downtrend. These violent short squeeze sessions like the one we had yesterday inflict too much pain on bears. Anyone who can just spot a bearish or bullish longer-term pattern … Continue reading →

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Hide and Seek Around the 200-day Moving Average

Posted on November 21, 2012 by Michael Harris

This game of hide and seek is an outcome of uncertainty with the 200-day moving average playing the role of a reversion level. TLT started its frequent reversion to this level back in August and SPY has just started. As the chart shows, the current stage of the … Continue reading →

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Are the Returns of Your Fund Manager Platykurtic or Leptokurtic?

Posted on November 20, 2012 by Michael Harris

If you do not know the answer or, even worse, if the manager does not know the answer, then you may be up for surprises in the future, pleasant or unpleasant. Most fund managers focus on return and risk as measured by volatility and … Continue reading →

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