Probability of a Dive in Gold Prices Has Increased

The longer gold struggles to stay above $1700 an ounce the higher the probability of a dive to lower levels. Support is near the 200-day moving average at around $1661.



It may be seen from the GLD chart that strong support may be found at the point where the horizontal trendline meets the lower up-trendline and the 200-day moving average, all that near $162. If the support is taken and prices move below $161, a move towards the May lows near $150 is possible. GLD is not oversold and has room to go to the downside before it rebounds. I assign a subjective prior probability of 0.65 for a down move but I will update it as new information comes in for the first part of next week.

Disclosure: no relevant position at the time of this post and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.. 

Charting program: Amibroker (Charts created with AmiBroker – advanced charting and technical analysis software.”) 


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