Monthly Archives: January 2013

Stock Market Gambler’s Fallacy

Some traders base their trading decisions on the fallacy of the maturity of chances, also known as gambler’s fallacy. This fallacy is the expectation that the market will correct when indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) assume extreme values. However, any extreme values of such … Continue reading

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Longest S&P 500 Winning Streak and a Few Related Statistics

The longest S&P 500 winning streak lasted 14 days. The market peaked after 10 days and then declined for about 3 months. The 8-day winning streak shows historically a winning bias in the range of 60% – 80% for long positions with … Continue reading

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Golden Cross 2012 Performance

The January 2012 golden cross long signal in SPY generated a return of 7.64% for the year. The SPY buy and hold total return for 2012 was about 14%.

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Barry Ritholtz’s Secular Bear Market

Barry Ritholtz, the CEO and Director of Equity Research at Fusion IQ, has argued several times in the past that we are in a secular bear market that started in March 2000. In a recent post, he wrote that “we are … Continue reading

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The Price Action Lab SPY2p5 System Outperformed the Market in 2012

The SPY2p5 system, which was generated by Price Action Lab on April 7, 2012, outperformed the market in 2012 by a wide margin.

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Bond Bear Market Forecasts May Be Premature

As long as unemployment remains high and machines are replacing humans even in the service sector (read this piece by Josh Brown ) the probability is still high that the spike in yields is just due to the anti-correlation between stocks and bonds … Continue reading

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