Monthly Archives: January 2013

Longest Flat Period in NASDAQ-100 Ever

The 20-day flat trading period in NASDAQ-100 has resulted in a price channel with a height of 65.56 points, or a 2.42% difference between the lowest low and the highest high. This type of price action has never occurred in NASDAQ-100 before but in … Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics, Technical Analysis | Tagged | Comments Off

Stock Market Gambler’s Fallacy

Some traders base their trading decisions on the fallacy of the maturity of chances, also known as gambler’s fallacy. This fallacy is the expectation that the market will correct when indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) assume extreme values. However, any extreme values of such … Continue reading

Posted in ETF Analysis, Technical Analysis, Trading System Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off

Stock Market Euphoria and Overbought Conditions

Suddenly there is euphoria again. Pundit forecasts for Dow 20,000 are again making the headlines.  Some worldwide indices are now well overbought. For example, the FTSE-100 as of yesterday’s close was up 4.43% YTD with an RSI(14) in excess of 81, a … Continue reading

Posted in Technical Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off

Pattern of the Correlation Between S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 After the 2009 Low

After the March 2009 stock market low, a new pattern of correlation between S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 emerged. The basic features of this pattern are a higher correlation between the two indices during up moves than before the financial crisis and … Continue reading

Posted in ETF Analysis, Technical Analysis | Tagged | Comments Off

Longest S&P 500 Winning Streak and a Few Related Statistics

The longest S&P 500 winning streak lasted 14 days. The market peaked after 10 days and then declined for about 3 months. The 8-day winning streak shows historically a winning bias in the range of 60% – 80% for long positions with … Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics, Technical Analysis | Tagged | Comments Off