The S&P 500 Index Just Broke Another Record Last Week

The S&P 500 has spent 388 days above its 200-day moving average, breaking the record set by the uptrend of the 1960s by 3 days. This coming week the 1996 uptrend record of 393 days above the 200-day moving average will be broken too.

Who cares about descriptive statistics? Probably no one does but here we go:

SPX_20140606_MA

The first indicator chart shows the number of bars between 50-200 golden crosses (blue) and death crosses (red). The last cross was of course golden and it is active for 590 days. This is the fourth longest golden cross, as shown on the chart. The longest of all golden crosses terminated near the end of September of 1998.

The bottom indicator chart shows the number of bars S&P 500 has spent above (blue)/below (red) its 200-DMA. This past week the record set by the uptrend of the 1960s was broken by 3 bars. Unless a terrible black swan occurs in the meantime, this coming week the July 1996 record of 393 bars will be matched leaving as a target the highest record of 524 bars registered during September of 1998.

Can the S&P 500 match the September 1998 record? This is difficult to answer without any clairvoyant powers but given that the stock market is in a state of constant intervention by central banks, “forward guidance”, quantitative easing, negative rates, etc., I would not be surprised to see the S&P 500 moving above its 200-DMA for another 6 more months, or precisely for about 137 more days that are required to break that highest record.

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Disclosure: no relevant positions.
Charting program: Amibroker
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