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Inference to the Best Explanation

In the markets, deductive inferences do not usually provide any answers because the appropriate premises to use are unknown. Inductive inferences are plagued by data-mining bias and noise. Inferences to the best explanation are usually weak but may offer higher chances of … Continue reading

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ETF YTD Performance: Winners and Losers

Real estate, biotech and bonds continue to deliver high returns YTD while small caps are recovering. The performance table points to possibility of bubbles forming soon. Share

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Bond Bears Are Getting Fried Once Again

The 10-Year Note yield closed at 2.35% Friday after dropping as low as 2.30% during the day. Although the rally in bond prices has reached overbought levels, bond bears who were dreaming quick profits from a trend reversal last month are getting fried.  Share

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S&P 500 Index Rebound Near Completion and a Few Thoughts on What Lies Ahead

The S&P 500 index reached its 50-day moving average yesterday after a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the drop from the high of July 24 and to low of August 7.  The market needs new fuel to go higher and there is high … Continue reading

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Probability of S&P 500 Testing Recent Highs Before Recent Lows

The S&P 500 made an all-time high close 14 trading days ago at 1987.98 and then started to correct towards a short-term low at 1909.57 last Thursday. The included chart shows an indicator that has a value equal to the probability of … Continue reading

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The Technical Signals Than Get You Out and Then Back In

A must read yesterday at The Reformed Broker blog about pundits, market top calls and the fact that “The guys who get you out will never get you back in“. On the other hand, resorting to buy and hold does … Continue reading

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Conditions of a Major Correction in Stocks are Developing

One of the many mistakes of technical analysts is that they focus on setups and do not pay attention to event triggers. The best short setup in the world will not work out if there is no trigger to get the … Continue reading

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