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They Have Figured It Out: Facts Will Be Delayed

Buy the rumor, sell the fact. If facts are delayed, then investors will continue buying the rumors. It works; the evidence is all around you.

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Significance Of French Election Rally A Mere Illusion

A lot of noise in financial media yesterday about the equity markets rally after the results of the first round of French elections. Actually, any significance assigned to this rally is due to an illusion. I do not say this, … Continue reading

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What Some Market Timers Are Afraid Of

Book authors, bloggers and even some pundits insist that market timing is easy because it has worked in the past. But the fact is that profits depend on future market behavior. This is what some market timers are afraid of.

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Dumb Social Media Sentiment Algos Target The Stock of O’Reilly Automotive

Increased volatility in the stock of O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) in the last two days while the name O’Reilly was trending in the news raises questions about the effectiveness of social media sentiment algos and their perils.

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The Stock Market Is For Speculation, Not an Income Source

Everyone in financial media is now talking about Vanguard and how it controls more than 80% of the money invested in index funds. Have investors forgotten the recent brutality of the stock market or are they just convinced that another … Continue reading

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Gold Outperforms Technology Year-To-Date

The holiday-shortened week marked a significant change in asset performance with gold outperforming technology on a year-to-date basis. This impacts diversified portfolios.

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A Mean Reverting Stock Market With Increasing Risk

The daily returns of the S&P 500 exhibit mean-reverting behavior since the late 1990s but the index reached new all-time highs recently. I show in this article that this has been accomplished at increasing risk, despite beliefs that volatility is … Continue reading

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Frequencies of Events Matter But Not Always

Yesterday the S&P 500 made an intraday low a little more than 0.8% below the previous day’s close and that got some bears in social media excited. However, it is the relative frequency of these events that counts, not a … Continue reading

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