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Fooled by Structural Upward Bias

Some quants are fooled by the longer-term upward bias in equity indexes such as the S&P 500 when backtesting trading rules. This structural ¬†bias makes it hard to distinguish between profitable algos and spurious correlations unless the quant is willing … Continue reading

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How to Distinguish Between a Modern Technical Analyst and a Visual Chartist

Visual chartists often believe they are doing technical analysis but in most cases what they do has little relation to it. It is not hard to distinguish between a modern technical analyst and a visual chartist. Four signs are offered … Continue reading

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A Rare Pattern in S&P 500

The last time this rare pattern occurred, a 7% correction followed after a failed breakout to the upside. A 51-day sideways consolidation is a rare pattern with just a few occurrences in this index in the last 65 years. Share

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The Death of the Golden Cross

As robots dominate the markets and become major participants, the success rate of many traditional technical signals is destined to decrease. Although in some cases fading of classical technical analysis patterns may be intentional, in most cases their failures can … Continue reading

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How Some Signal Providers Overstate Performance

In most cases it is not fraud but a result of incompetence. However, it is a fact that some signal providers do overstate performance with unrealistic calculations while others do not report it at all. Share

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New All-Time Highs in S&P 500 High Beta and Equal Weight ETFs

While low volatility large caps are struggling to maintain positive performance for the year, high beta stocks are rallying to new highs. The S&P 500 high beta and equal weight ETFs just made new-all time closing highs. Share

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