Category Archives: Economic Analysis

Josh Brown’s Relentless Bid Theory and Price Boosting

Posted on March 9, 2014 by Michael Harris

The Relentless Bid Theory, or RBT for short, was recently proposed by Josh Brown in his TRB blog. It appears that RBT is an inference to best explanation for the current state of the market and possibly beyond. In this article I  propose … Continue reading →

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Commodities and Yields in a Recoupling With Stocks

Posted on February 23, 2014 by Michael Harris

The coupling of commodities and yields with stocks ended in the middle of last year but created problems to funds betting on such correlations persisting for longer. Commodities started to recouple with the stock market in the third quarter of last year and yields followed … Continue reading →

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Will The FED Continue Paying the Put Premium?

Posted on February 21, 2014 by Michael Harris

The market continuous to show strength because most investors are by now convinced that the FED will continue paying their put premium, or in other words it will keep on providing downside insurance via an aggressive expansion of its balance sheet.  … Continue reading →

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Dollar Index Near Crucial Support Level

Posted on February 18, 2014 by Michael Harris

Dollar index weakness has accelerated recently and after the new FED chief announcement of a commitment to a stable quantitative easing policy. The Dollar Index is bounded by its 200-day moving average from above since last November and it is … Continue reading →

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Give Me a Break You Bond Market Reporters

Posted on July 19, 2013 by Michael Harris

For reasons unknown to me some financial reporters like to talk about a US bond market meltdown. However, as the charts show the recent spike in yields can be hardly considered a meltdown. Actually, yields are still on a very strong downtrend … Continue reading →

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A Very High Probability Setup in SPY

Posted on June 17, 2013 by Price Action Lab

This pattern in SPY has unusually high historical win rate in the range of 76% – 100% for long positions with profit target in the range 2% – 5%.

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How The Media in its Struggle to Kill HFT is Actually Killing the Markets

Posted on June 8, 2013 by Michael Harris

This is a unique time in the history of mankind because so many get to speak publicly about subjects they do not understand at all and the blogosphere and electronic media is giving them this opportunity. Adversely hit by this high entropy … Continue reading →

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No Party Yet For Bond Bears

Posted on June 6, 2013 by Michael Harris

Although yields have risen lately and as a result bond prices have fallen, this is no party for bond bears. The 2.40% level in the 10-Year Note yield is very important and although it was reached twice before, in October of … Continue reading →

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The Net Value of All Market Calls is Exactly Zero

Posted on June 3, 2013 by Michael Harris

This is true at any instant, in the short-term, in the medium-term and in the longer-term. One needs not to have studied probability and statistics to know that any arbitrary market call made at any instant is drawn from a … Continue reading →

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Unique Period of Bond Yield Volatility a Result of Constant Portfolio Rebalancing

Posted on May 4, 2013 by Michael Harris

The 10-year Note yield rose 7.4% yesterday as managers were rebalancing their portfolios to reflect new information about the state of the economy and the objectives of the FED. This is a high level of daily volatility in bond yields and a phenomenon … Continue reading →

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