Category Archives: Economic Analysis

Misconceptions About The Three-Body Problem And Its Relation To Forecasting

A recent article with a reference to the three body problem and its relation to predictability is an example of how popular science misconceptions find their way into finance and investments.

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Happy Holidays! Of Course This Time Is Different

This time is different. Nothing changes until it does and it just did this year.

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Equity Valuation Is Dead

Many analysts still struggle with equity valuations. This is an exercise in futility in this new era of investors looking for a “store of value.”

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Lower U.S. Dollar Boosts U.S. Stocks

Although the correlation between the stock market and the U.S. dollar does not in general imply any causation, with high certainty we can say that year-to-date stock index returns are for the most part related to currency fluctuations.

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Cryptocurrencies and Hyperinflation

The biggest danger of the cryptocurrency bubble is not speculator losses but hyperinflation. As the value of virtual currencies increases and they gain acceptance in commerce, the danger of hyperinflation that will damage economies worldwide is also increasing.

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Why The Financial Media Is Wrong About The Rally In Gold

Gold rallied about 2% after the rate increase announcement yesterday. The financial media believes that this was a typical “buy the fact” reaction. They are wrong.

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