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Category Archives: Economic Analysis
A 52-Week Low in BDI a Result of Slowing Global Trade
If the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falls below 800 for an extended period of time during which many time charters will expire, this could spell trouble for some over-leveraged shipping companies. The 52-week low last Friday is a result of … Continue reading
Massive Layoffs May Contribute to a Continuation of the Equity Bull Market
It appears that the easiest thing CEOs can do at this point to keep the price of their stock going up and their salaries growing is to engage in massive layoffs. That can push the unemployment rate above 6.5% and also help contain inflationary pressures with the personal … Continue reading
The Law of Diminishing Returns Starting to Hit Diversified Portfolios
Since 2010 and well after the introduction of quantitative easing, which has helped the economic recovery, the returns of diversified portfolios are decreasing and have reached levels that may not justify further investment risk. That can prompt a massive move into cash and the … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Analysis, ETF Analysis
Tagged asset bubbles, etf diversified portfolio, law of diminishin returns
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Interest Rates May Rise Soon
The 10-Year Note yield has been in a 21 bps range during that last 45 days. Analysis of yield action since the 1960s shows that when yields were on an uptrend, similar sideways action has failed only once to signal a rise of … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Analysis, Market Statistics, Technical Analysis
Tagged 10-year Note yield, DSGE, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
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A New Correlation Order
For nearly half a century the S&P 500 Index and the velocity of money were highly correlated, with both declining during recessions and rising during periods of economic growth. The high correlation turned into a high anti-correlation after the introduction … Continue reading
Crude Oil Price Action and Some Economic Realities
The recent announcement of a sale of up to 5 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves is putting a pressure on futures prices with a dip below the 200-day moving average and a possible test of the January lows is … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Analysis, Technical Analysis
Tagged Crude oil, gasoline prices, inflation, median home sales price, purchasing power
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Josh Brown’s Relentless Bid Theory and Price Boosting
The Relentless Bid Theory, or RBT for short, was recently proposed by Josh Brown in his TRB blog. It appears that RBT is an inference to best explanation for the current state of the market and possibly beyond. In this article I propose … Continue reading
Posted in Economic Analysis, Market Statistics, Technical Analysis
Tagged Market Boost Theory, Relentless Bid Theory
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