Category Archives: Economic Analysis

Why There Won’t Be An Interest Rate Increase Anytime Soon

A market trend reversal due to rising interest rates won’t happen anytime soon because the Fed won’t act in the foreseeable future. However, a major market correction could happen due to other reasons, even more important than rising rates. Share

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Stock Market Rally to New Highs Mainly Driven by High Beta Stock Picking

The S&P 500 index made a new all-time high last Friday but the rally was mainly driven by large cap high beta stocks and the low volatility group is lagging behind. This is also evident from the price action in … Continue reading

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Baltic Dry Index Falls to a 28-Year Low

Due to an oversupply of vessels and slowing economic activity, the Baltic Dry Index fell to a 28-year low of 608 on Friday with the shipping industry facing tough times ahead. Share

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The Draghi Effect and the Overleveraged Funds

I have lost count of how many times Mr. Draghi has promised sovereign bond buying. But for now, all the ECB does is accepting sovereign bonds as collateral and has not printed money in exchange for paper. The reason is … Continue reading

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The Parallel Paths of Oil and Solar Stocks

Crude oil is down more than 50% from its June 2014 levels and TAN is down 34% from its 52-week high. The damage appears irreversible, at least in the foreseeable future.  But high oil prices are good for the future because … Continue reading

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When Speculators Believe They Are Value Investors

One of the worst side effects of the V-bottom fueled market of 2014 is that many stock market speculators now believe that they are value investors and this disillusioned group includes passive index trackers who have either not learned from … Continue reading

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Another V-Bottom in S&P 500?

After a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of Thursday’s high-low range on Friday, the S&P 500 may be preparing for another V-bottom and new all-time highs. This year we had 3 major V-bottoms in the index and last year there were 4 more. … Continue reading

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