Category Archives: Economic Analysis

Interest Rates May Rise Soon

Posted on April 9, 2014 by Michael Harris

The 10-Year Note yield has been in a 21 bps range during that last 45 days. Analysis of yield action since the 1960s shows that when yields were on an uptrend, similar sideways action has failed only once to signal a rise of … Continue reading →

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A New Correlation Order

Posted on March 30, 2014 by Michael Harris

For nearly half a century the S&P 500 Index and the velocity of money were highly correlated, with both declining during recessions and rising during periods of economic growth. The high correlation turned into a high anti-correlation after the introduction … Continue reading →

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Crude Oil Price Action and Some Economic Realities

Posted on March 13, 2014 by Michael Harris

The recent announcement of a sale of up to 5 million barrels of crude oil from strategic reserves is putting a pressure on futures prices with a dip below the 200-day moving average and a possible test of the January lows is … Continue reading →

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Josh Brown’s Relentless Bid Theory and Price Boosting

Posted on March 9, 2014 by Michael Harris

The Relentless Bid Theory, or RBT for short, was recently proposed by Josh Brown in his TRB blog. It appears that RBT is an inference to best explanation for the current state of the market and possibly beyond. In this article I  propose … Continue reading →

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Commodities and Yields in a Recoupling With Stocks

Posted on February 23, 2014 by Michael Harris

The coupling of commodities and yields with stocks ended in the middle of last year but created problems to funds betting on such correlations persisting for longer. Commodities started to recouple with the stock market in the third quarter of last year and yields followed … Continue reading →

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Will The FED Continue Paying the Put Premium?

Posted on February 21, 2014 by Michael Harris

The market continuous to show strength because most investors are by now convinced that the FED will continue paying their put premium, or in other words it will keep on providing downside insurance via an aggressive expansion of its balance sheet.  … Continue reading →

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Dollar Index Near Crucial Support Level

Posted on February 18, 2014 by Michael Harris

Dollar index weakness has accelerated recently and after the new FED chief announcement of a commitment to a stable quantitative easing policy. The Dollar Index is bounded by its 200-day moving average from above since last November and it is … Continue reading →

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Give Me a Break You Bond Market Reporters

Posted on July 19, 2013 by Michael Harris

For reasons unknown to me some financial reporters like to talk about a US bond market meltdown. However, as the charts show the recent spike in yields can be hardly considered a meltdown. Actually, yields are still on a very strong downtrend … Continue reading →

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