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Category Archives: Economic Analysis
US companies are hording more than $2.5 trillion in cash in overseas accounts. This is about 70% of the quantitative easing between 2008 and 2014.
There may be a reason behind Fed’s procrastination and it is not related to economic data but to investor and trader psychology. Actually, the Fed may be modulating the discounting of interest rate increases before acting.
At least this is what it appears many investors think in a low/negative bond yield environment since they are convinced that the Fed will not let the market fall. As a result they ignore developments in one of the riskiest … Continue reading
Some click-bait websites and various analysts often repeat the “bad news is good news for the market” meme. This creates the impression that the market likes bad for the economy and people news. This is nonsense.
When the stock market rallies, goldbugs scream loud “financialization of commodities.” When the stock market falls, they scream loud “recession”. These are difficult times for goldbugs and for these memes to scare investors. Precious metals are in trouble in the … Continue reading
On December 16, 2015, when the Fed raised short-term rates, the 10-Year Note yield was at 2.29%. After about a month, the market has neutralized the Fed action and the 10-Year Note yield has fallen by about 25 basis points.
This was the worst first week of the year for U.S. stocks in at least 66 years. And this drop may not be related to interest rates, oil prices or geopolitical instability but to the fact that value investors are … Continue reading
There are at least five factors that combined may create conditions for multi-year range-bound action in the U.S. stock market: Higher market efficiency, proliferation of ETFs, a crowded momentum trade, high frequency trading and the end of stimulus. Momentum traders … Continue reading