Category Archives: ETF Analysis

There is No Overnight Edge in SPY

In January of 2011 there was an article in Bespoke about an overnight edge in SPY. I responded with two articles that showed that the edge was purely hypothetical. Since then, it is not even an issue of a hypothetical … Continue reading

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Lying Gurus and Clueless Self-Proclaimed Authorities

Some financial gurus deliberately lie to achieve their end objectives. This is part of the game because they are rewarded based on performance and not based on what they said in the financial media. The situation with self-proclaimed authorities is … Continue reading

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Fooled by Monte Carlo Analysis

Simple Monte Carlo analysis tools are often used to assess the risks of trading systems and to determine appropriate capitalization levels. However, simple trade reshuffling algorithms can produce misleading results in many cases and fool their users. Share

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Whether Bonds and Stocks are Correlated Depends on the Timeframe

In the short-term stocks and bonds have again turned anti-correlated after a period of positive correlation, in the medium-term they show no correlation and in the longer-term they are anti-correlated.  Correlation depends on timeframe. Share

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Small Cap Weakness is Problematic

Small caps show weakness that is problematic after a new divergence from large caps developed last week. There is strong resistance in Russell 2000 at the 50-day moving average near 1247. Support is at the lower trendline of the rising … Continue reading

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IBB: A Large Correction is Looming

Momentum fizzled out in IBB and that caused the 4.2% plunge yesterday. The probability of a 12% correction is high in this ETF. Share

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New All-Time Highs in S&P 500 High Beta and Equal Weight ETFs

While low volatility large caps are struggling to maintain positive performance for the year, high beta stocks are rallying to new highs. The S&P 500 high beta and equal weight ETFs just made new-all time closing highs. Share

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