Category Archives: Market Statistics

Extreme Conditions in Price Action [Premium Articles]

Extreme conditions have developed in SPY ETF price action. This is premium content. Please login or subscribe to continue reading…

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Overbought Stock Market Conditions Are Not as Persistent as in Past

After reading recent articles in financial and social media, one may get the impression that prolonged overbought conditions in the stock market are a recent phenomenon, usually attributed to central bank manipulation and herd behavior. These are false impressions according to … Continue reading

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S&P 500 Price Action Since The November Elections

Price action in S&P 500 since the November elections indicates that mean-reversion is still persisting in this smoothly uptrending market.

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Selective Perception

Good out-of-sample results of a unique hypothesis may impress me but not naive statistics that demonstrate selective perception bias. Here is a recent example.

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Why Does It Feel Like Summer In The Stock Market?

Someone I follow in Twitter made a comment yesterday that recent market activity is similar to that observed during summer months. Below I include some – mostly useless – statistics and the possible reasons for the subdued action.

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Charts Can Make Pain Look Like Gain

Charts can impose many illusions besides the formation of regular patterns. One of the most serious is the illusion of high buy and hold returns. The stock of Microsoft is a good example: $10,000 invested in IPO would now worth … Continue reading

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Dow Jones Should Be At 30000

The mainstream financial media recently compared the 18 year period it took for Dow Jones to grow from 10,000 to 20,000 to the 85 or so years it took for a  rise from about 60 to 10,000 and argued that … Continue reading

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Dow Jones 20K Reveals Major Misunderstandings

Articles in mainstream financial media compare the Dow Jones rise to 10,000 that took about 103 years to the rise from that level to 20,000 alluding to easier milestones. These articles confuse absolute changes with growth rates.

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