Category Archives: Market Statistics

Inference to the Best Explanation

In the markets, deductive inferences do not usually provide any answers because the appropriate premises to use are unknown. Inductive inferences are plagued by data-mining bias and noise. Inferences to the best explanation are usually weak but may offer higher chances of … Continue reading

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The Technical Signals Than Get You Out and Then Back In

A must read yesterday at The Reformed Broker blog about pundits, market top calls and the fact that “The guys who get you out will never get you back in“. On the other hand, resorting to buy and hold does … Continue reading

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Conditions of a Major Correction in Stocks are Developing

One of the many mistakes of technical analysts is that they focus on setups and do not pay attention to event triggers. The best short setup in the world will not work out if there is no trigger to get the … Continue reading

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Shorts May be Squeezed Up to 50% of the Time

Several hours before the open yesterday I wrote this blog about a pending short squeeze in stock indexes. I had no idea it would take place same day, I must be clear about that. I based the call on quantitative analysis … Continue reading

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Goldman Sachs’ Crystal Ball

Goldman Sachs has a market crystal ball according to which the S&P 500 will return about 6.2% annually in the next 3 years and rise to 2300. But no matter whether the call was based on fancy econometric models or on … Continue reading

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No Correlation Between a Rare Large Weekly Loss and Market Tops

The S&P 500 dropped 2.7% last week, the largest weekly loss in 113 weeks or in a little more than two years. However, there is no correlation between a rare sudden large weekly drop and the formation of a market top. Share

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State of Major US Stock Indexes and Key Proxy ETFs

Distances from the 200-day moving average and from a 250-day high of major stock indexes. RSI(14) and YTD return of key proxy ETFs. Share

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