Category Archives: Market Statistics

Reversals After a Gap on the Open Could Mean Anything

Yesterday stock indexes gapped up on the open but then reversed course to close sharply lower. This type of price action is common and it does not indicate high probability of a major top formation as some analysts claim. As … Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics, Technical Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off

No Bragging, Just a Reminder

I do not like to brag but once in a while I think it is good to remind of a few successes because no one else will in a competitive and crowed space. A week ago I wrote that bears … Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics, Quantitative trading, Technical Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off

The Market Does Not Know

This is one of those periods when the market has no clue of what is coming next: an extension of the rally or a medium-term top? This is reflected clearly by the price action in small caps, as quantitative analysis … Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics, Quantitative trading | Tagged , , , | Comments Off

Prompted by Random Descriptive Statistics Bears Are Lining Up for Slaughter

Five losing days in a row in the S&P 500 was enough to cause a flood of reports on this random and meaningless statistic. But such reports also contribute to an increasing bearish sentiment that in turn prepares the bears … Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics | Tagged , , | Comments Off

The Stock Market Uptrend Can Continue At Higher Volatility Levels

Volatility is a derivative of price and as such it is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for a market top or bottom.  The current rise in volatility may mean that the market is trying to find a new … Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics, Technical Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off

The Draghi Effect and the Overleveraged Funds

I have lost count of how many times Mr. Draghi has promised sovereign bond buying. But for now, all the ECB does is accepting sovereign bonds as collateral and has not printed money in exchange for paper. The reason is … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Analysis, Market Statistics | Tagged , , | Comments Off

Personal Beliefs Masquerading as Forecasts

Fund managers and other finance professionals that make forecasts, especially at the beginning of a calendar year, in reality express personal beliefs. Their models, if they have any, are based on descriptive statistics that can say little about the next … Continue reading

Posted in Market Statistics, Technical Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off