Category Archives: Market Statistics

That Was Not a Correction But a Reversion to the Mean

The recent drop in stock prices was a normal reversion to the mean, as it is evident from statistics. On the other hand, the 2010, 2011 and 2012 drops were something more than a reversion to the mean, possibly due … Continue reading

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A Lesson For the Bears From 2007

Bears almost never get a top where they want it. During 2007, the S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average and then rose above it three times before forming a top and in the meantime it also made new highs squeezing … Continue reading

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Stock Market volatility: The Good News and The Bad News

The good news is that although volatility has increased, it is not yet at levels that have historically signaled a top. The bad news is that volatility is also not at levels that have historically signaled a bottom. Share

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The S&P 500 Just Completed an Impressive 477-Day Run Above its 200-DMA

The second longest run of the S&P 500 above its 200-DMA since the 1960s was terminated yesterday after 477 days. That was an impressive uptrend and shows that this market has still a lot of momentum despite the correction that … Continue reading

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S&P 500 Statistics Near Crucial Support Agree With Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 index closed one point above its 200-day moving average on Friday, having dropped 3.14% for the week and 5.23% from its all-time high. This correction is still within normal bounds and the statistics do not point to a … Continue reading

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It Could be a Bottom, a Top, a Downtrend or Even an Uptrend

That’s right folks. Yesterday’s 1.75% rise in S&P 500 following a 1.51% drop is an event that has occurred 72 times since January of 1960, near bottoms, near tops, along downtrends but also along uptrends. Share

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Drop in S&P 500 From All-Time Highs Within Uptrend Normal Bounds

The S&P 500 has dropped -3.79% from its all-time high thirteen trading days ago. This drop is well within -6.56%, the two standard deviations lower band of 13-day returns. Usually volatility near a top is much higher and the market is possibly trying … Continue reading

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