Category Archives: Trend following

Fooled by Persisting Market Conditions

This blog is related to the previous blog on the RSI(2) but also conveys a much more general message about the impact of persisting market conditions and how they can fool trading system developers. In the case of the RSI(2) it … Continue reading

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Another Long Uptrend in Stocks is Unlikely to Occur in the Near Future

The last golden cross in S&P 500 occurred on January 31, 2012. The 50-dma has stayed above the 200-dma for 774 days, or more than three years. It will probably take a while to have another golden cross that lasts … Continue reading

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BlueTrend Fund, Trend-Following and Data-mining

The BlueTrend fund returned 45.78% in 2008, in a year that the S&P 500 index fell 37% on a total return basis. However, in recent years the performance of the fund has deteriorated. I first present an analysis of the … Continue reading

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A Trend-follower’s Nightmare

Hindsight is a trader’s worst enemy because there is no guarantee that the future will be like the past. Yet, many books and articles promote trend-following based on hindsight. This blog offers an example of how a trend-follower’s worst nightmare … Continue reading

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High Bond Market Returns Offset Commodity Losses of Diversified Portfolios

The high bond market returns this year so far make up for losses of diversified portfolios in precious metals and commodities. The Price Action Lab diversified ETF portfolio is up 9.5% YTD, 2% lower than the SPY buy and hold return. Share

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The Technical Signals Than Get You Out and Then Back In

A must read yesterday at The Reformed Broker blog about pundits, market top calls and the fact that “The guys who get you out will never get you back in“. On the other hand, resorting to buy and hold does … Continue reading

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Social Media Woes and the Risks of Trend-following

Trend-followers in social media stocks and ETFs that did not apply prudent risk and money management schemes are risking going into the red. The dynamics of the uptrend and of the decline that followed did not leave any room for naive trend-following … Continue reading

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