Category Archives: Trend following

Passive Investing Fables

It is about time to update the results of an article I wrote about a year ago about passive investing strategies. Usually, a couple of years after a market bottom and while on a strong uptrend, old arguments resurface about the superiority of … Continue reading

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When Does a Downtrend Begin?

By the time that a downtrend is identified in the context of technical analysis, losses may be substantial. An important issue is not when a market can be declared to be on a downtrend, but when a downtrend begins. This depends on subjective … Continue reading

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Price Action Lab Trend-Following System Performance

This post is about the performance of the TFAdapt, which is a trend-following system with unique adaptation capabilities. The performance report is based on SPY trading. Share

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This Indicator Shows No Sign of a Stock Market Top

By virtue of the fact that in the stock market there must always be a seller for every buyer, there will also be contradicting indicators. The job of a good technical analyst is to identify all significant indicators, not only those that confirm some … Continue reading

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The Passive Indexing Buy and Hold Crowd Should Reconsider

They should reconsider their unreasonable stand against active management after taking a closer look at the enclosed chart. In my opinion, 15 trades in 13.5 years are not such a big deal for the type of dramatic improvement in returns. … Continue reading

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Expect More High-Tech Competition

Due to a crowding effect in HFT domain and a continuous decrease in profitability a lot of those firms are now moving to momentum, swing and trend-following domains in an effort to recoup their initial investment. Thus, retail traders and … Continue reading

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TFadapt System Performance in SPY and QQQ in the period 2000 to 2012

Historical performance results of the TFadapt system for SPY and QQQ are presented. Without any system parameter adjustments, a decrease in drawdown levels and an increase in compound annual returns are obtained as compared to buy and hold. The result is a … Continue reading

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Adaptive Trend-Following Performance

This is a report of the performance of TFadapt, a trend-following system that adapts to changing market conditions, on historical data of 8 different international indices since the start of 1990. The outstanding and statistically significant performance of this system  in SPY … Continue reading

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