Category Archives: Trend following
Despite a 33.4% year-to-date gain in the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), trend followers in the last seven years are still in the red.
Many of us who were trend-followers in the 1990s find the current notion of equity trend-following sort of peculiar, if not amusing, due to hindsight bias effect.
Neal Berger, the CIO of Eagle’s View Asset Management, thinks trend-following and other “pedestrian” quant strategies, such as momentum, won’t survive due to lack of dumb money. I have also been saying this for a few years.
One of the most difficult problems of tactical investing is using timing strategies that are not biased due to special market conditions of the past. However, most promoters of tactical investing are unaware of this problem and rely on hypothetical … Continue reading
Before elevating trend-following and momentum in general to the status of a factor, this question must be answered: where do trend-following profits come from? Obviously, part of momentum literature ignores this important question.