Category Archives: Trend following
Many of us who were trend-followers in the 1990s find the current notion of equity trend-following sort of peculiar, if not amusing, due to hindsight bias effect.
Neal Berger, the CIO of Eagle’s View Asset Management, thinks trend-following and other “pedestrian” quant strategies, such as momentum, won’t survive due to lack of dumb money. I have also been saying this for a few years.
One of the most difficult problems of tactical investing is using timing strategies that are not biased due to special market conditions of the past. However, most promoters of tactical investing are unaware of this problem and rely on hypothetical … Continue reading
Before elevating trend-following and momentum in general to the status of a factor, this question must be answered: where do trend-following profits come from? Obviously, part of momentum literature ignores this important question.
Commodity Trading Advisor programs are experiencing another down year on the average according to official sources. This adds to a long streak of disappointing returns in recent years and despite trends forming in several markets.
It is an empirical fact that trends develop in financial price series. But it is also an empirical fact that in recent years profiting from trends has not been easy. People with skin-in-the-game know that trends and trend-following are not … Continue reading