Market Timers And Gambling

Arguments in favor of market timing usually rest on the existence of the momentum premium anomaly and empirical analysis that shows it can be captured with relatively simple strategies, such as moving averages and price rate of change. However, these claims are naive because in addition to the limitations of analysis they conflate state space and time domain probabilities.

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Volatility Pattern in S&P 500: What You Should Know [Premium Articles]

A volatility pattern has developed in S&P 500 and there are conflicting views and analysis of what it means. Below is a backtest of this particular pattern and a few comments.

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The Best Stock Market Indicator Is Financial Media Competition For Clicks

The frequency of articles in the financial media and blogosphere with calls for a stock market collapse is often a good indicator of a bullish market. This year there were numerous such articles about the Soros put, Marc Faber and Brexit. Yet, the market has been making new all-time highs and has ignored these calls as it should.

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Is Technical Analysis Broken?

When major financial media sites make up patterns because they can find none to present their case of a bull market, then there is a problem. Fed policies and the financialization of all assets have had a negative effect on technical analysis. Is technical analysis broken or is it undergoing a major change?

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The Rational Insiders And The Irrational Speculators

Jeff Bezos, the Amazon CEO, just pocketed $756 million from selling a “boatload” of stock, according to Yahoo! Finance. The sale is a perfectly rational decision. The irrational decision is buying a stock that trades about 190 times trailing twelve months earnings.

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Best Lookback Period in Position Trading With Price Patterns

Price Action Lab allows systematic and also discretionary position traders to analyze historical price series and determine the best lookback period in the context of price patterns. In this article, the best lookback period is determined in the case of three major ETFs based on the out-of-sample performance of patterns identified by Price Action Lab.

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Market Analysis Update, Thursday, August 4, 2016 [Premium Articles]

A winning trade will be closed at the open of today. One of the setups was cancelled. An update on the state of Momersion is included due to extreme levels in this indicator.

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