Strategies With High Win Rate And Lower Payoff Ratio

Maintaining a constant profit factor while lowering the payoff ratio requires a strategy with higher win rate. In general, high win rate strategies are more difficult to develop but when combined with lower payoff ratio usually perform better during times of uncertainty. In this article I present an example of a strategy and its performance results for 2015.

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From Certain V-bottoms to Uncertain Double Bottoms

Most remember the certain V-bottoms in the S&P 500 during 2014. These are now replaced by uncertain double bottoms. There is an area of serious resistance in SPY and more whipsaw should be expected unless fundamentals change.

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No 6-Day Winning Streak in S&P 500 Since June 20, 2014

The S&P 500 has not seen a 6-day winning streak since June 20, 2014, a period of 409 trading days. What could this mean?

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State Of The Stock Market – February 3, 2016 [Premium Articles]

Breadth indicators and comparison with the stock market state on January 27, 2016.

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Visual Chart Trading Models Require Ecorithms

Even some academic researchers have fallen into the trap of trying to quantify the performance of patterns used by visual chart traders, such as for example triangles, head and shoulders, support and resistance and trendlines. Quantification of such patterns requires an ecorithm capable of modeling human trader behavior.

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February Returns And Gambler’s Fallacy

The S&P 500 has gained in February in the last six years. Is this a good short setup based on gambler’s fallacy? Analysis with data since 1950 shows that the average longest streak of consecutive winners for all months is 7.33 years. Therefore, applying gamblers fallacy may not be a good idea.

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Market Analysis For Week Of Monday, February 1, 2016 [Premium Articles]

This premium report includes a market commentary, stocks and ETFs to watch and technical/quantitative analysis of stock indexes, ETFs and Dow-30 stocks.

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