Overnight Price Action Reveals Stock Market Dynamics [Premium Articles]

Year-to-date overnight price action reveals an interesting dynamic of the stock market and a persistent anomaly.

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The Limiting Case Of Equity Trend-following is Passive Investing

Many of us who were trend-followers in the 1990s find the current notion of equity trend-following sort of peculiar, if not amusing, due to hindsight bias effect.

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Weekly Market Analysis – September 11, 2017 [Premium Articles]

Weekly premium reports include a market recap with commentary, performance of selected large cap stocks and ETFs, technical analysis with unique indicators and directional probabilities based on machine learning.

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Hindsight Bias Still Dominates Technical Analysis

Hindsight bias, or the tendency to see past events as predictable, still dominates technical analysis even though it has become much easier to check the validity of any claims. I present an example from the healthcare sector and then I attempt to identify the reasons of this widespread phenomenon of post hoc analysis.

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There Are No Perpetual Trends

The U.S. equity markets are in their ninth year of gains after the bottom of the financial crisis in March 2009. On a quarterly basis, the S&P 500 has been up 80% of the time with only seven losing quarters in a total of 34. But he second law of thermodynamics excludes the possibility of perpetual motion. Prices will adjust when conditions are right for that.

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DJIA and S&P 100 Long/Short Market Neutral Results For August 31, 2017

The DJIA and S&P 100 long/short market neutral strategies gained +0.55% and +0.33%, respectively, from the open to the close of Thursday, August 31, 2017.

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