Market Analysis For Week of Monday, June 22, 2015 [Premium Articles]

This premium report includes technical and quantitative analysis for:

  • Indexes: S&P 500, NASDAQ-100, Russell 2000
  • ETFs: SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM, GLD, SLV, TLT, USO, DBC, XLF, EEM, XLE, EFA, EWJ, XLP XLV, XRT, XLU, XLK, XLB, XLI, UNG, IBB, IYR, SMH, TAN, GDX, XHB, XME
  • Stocks: All Dow-30 components

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Longest Consolidation Period in Stocks in the Last 65 Years

The S&P 500 has moved sideways for 19 weeks in a horizontal channel with a 4.7% range from lowest low to highest high. This has not occurred before in the last 65 years. What could this pattern mean?

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IWM and IBB Top Holdings Point to Bubble Market

Based on the top 20 holdings of IBB, seven stocks have negative EPS and eight stocks have P/E ratio greater than 30. In the case of IWM and based on the top 20 holdings, five stocks have negative EPS and 10 stocks have P/E ratio greater than 30. These ETF are trading near or at all-time highs. Are they bubbles? Most probably they are and the consequences of this exuberance will be felt by the broader market.

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Putting Their Hindsight to Work for You

Hindsight can be useful to traders and investors if they realize that the bulk of market analysis about the markets is based on it. For example, a trend is realized only in hindsight because while it is formed every point on it can potentially mark a top. Momentum exists only in hindsight and trading models based on it are post hoc analysis.

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Last Time This Happened the S&P 500 Moved [Premium Articles]

This indicator points to a short-term move.

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Stocks Struggle as Fed Waits for the Trigger

The chart shows that the rise in the S&P 500 since the start of 2014 took place at falling expectation. Actually, since the financial crisis bottom, only the 2009 and 2013 uptrends were genuine according to this indicator. During the remaining time the stock market either struggled or was directly supported by the Fed.

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Developing Trading Systems Based on a Large Number of Price Patterns

Suppose that you have a large number of price patterns that you have tested and decided to trade. How do you develop a trading system based on them?  Apparently, there are many ways of doing this that offer increased flexibility for risk management.

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