Tag Archives: 10-year Note yield
Since 1982 there have been 29 “death-cross” signals but also 30 “golden-cross” signals in daily 10-Year Note yield chart. Apparently, these signals may have some relevance only if we already know the direction of the trend.
The latest panic was caused by a reversal in 10-Year Note yield and a possible invalidation of a head and shoulders bottom that has been forming since 2015.
The bulk of classical technical analysis charting is based on confirmation bias: chartists look for patterns that confirm expectations tied to future economic conditions. But biased analysis is wrong more often than it is right. A recent example is included.
Has the 10-Year Note yield found a bottom? Many good technical analysts are trying to find an answer to this question. However, the chart has defied simple technical analysis since the top in 1981 and has done that consistently. “Is … Continue reading