Tag Archives: bonds

Naive Bond Market Chartists and Confirmation Bias

The most recent massive blow to naive charting in the bond market was delivered during 2011 when some saw an inverse head and shoulders in yields. There have been more since but with less impact. I have argued that trading … Continue reading

Posted in Technical Analysis | Tagged , | Leave a comment

Bonds Have Become as Risky as Stocks and Volatility is on the Rise

Higher returns in the bond market have come at higher risks. In the case of TLT, the 14-day ATR has almost doubled from December of last year and annualized standard deviation of daily returns has increased to 11.5%, matching that … Continue reading

Posted in ETF Analysis, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Bonds Have Become as Risky as Stocks and Volatility is on the Rise

The Equity Vs. Bond Funds War Has Started (Again)

According to a major financial website two famous investors declared bonds a bubble yesterday and argued that the only place to put money is stocks. This is an example of wishful thinking and shows a bias when analyzing markets that depends on personal goals but also … Continue reading

Posted in Economic Analysis, Technical Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off on The Equity Vs. Bond Funds War Has Started (Again)

Bond Bears Are Getting Fried Once Again

The 10-Year Note yield closed at 2.35% Friday after dropping as low as 2.30% during the day. Although the rally in bond prices has reached overbought levels, bond bears who were dreaming quick profits from a trend reversal last month are getting fried.  Share

Posted in ETF Analysis, Technical Analysis | Tagged , , | Comments Off on Bond Bears Are Getting Fried Once Again

Bonds Are Selling off but Biotechnology is Rallying

Biotechnology stocks are rallying with IBB performance YTD being close to 17%. On the other hand, bonds are selling off with TLT correcting -2.2% in the last two days. Share

Posted in ETF Analysis | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Bonds Are Selling off but Biotechnology is Rallying

When Money Talks, TA Walks…

Bonds will do what is dictated by money flow. When money talks, chart patterns, technical indicators and wishful thinking walk… Share

Posted in ETF Analysis | Tagged , | Comments Off on When Money Talks, TA Walks…

The Quietest Uptrend of This Year

Bonds have rallied since the start of this year and TLT, the 10-Year Note ETF, is up 10.1% YTD.  Most financial analysts avoid talking about this uptrend because they have persistently argued for a sharp rise in yields and a downtrend … Continue reading

Posted in ETF Analysis, Technical Analysis | Tagged | Comments Off on The Quietest Uptrend of This Year