Tag Archives: chart patterns

Chart Patterns Without Statistics is Naive Technical Analysis

I am saying the obvious but I know some will deny it: Anyone who makes bets in a game of chance without having a measure of the expectation is a naive gambler. This is what many traders do when they … Continue reading

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Bond Charts Have Become the Junkyard of Chart Patterns

Bonds, and especially TLT, the popular ETF, have become a junkyard of classical chart patterns, a place where wrecking of such dubious formations is frequent and unforgiving. Share

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Gold False Breakout to the Downside

Spot gold has gained more than $45 after testing longer-term resistance near $1,540 last week. Some technical analysts have recently focused on some, in my view, random pattern formations on the gold chart and have pointed to an imminent collapse. Recent … Continue reading

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The Main Cause of Failure of Some Popular Technical Trading Methods

Indicator based trend following and classical chart patterns are two trading methods that were developed in mid 20th century using data from the equity markets mainly and worked well during an extended period of time in those markets due to the presence of autocorrelation. After 1998 things … Continue reading

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Massive Money May Start Chasing the Market

Another self-fulfilling prophecy may fail soon and those who “sold in May and went away” may start returning back to the market and chasing it. I warned about this possibility in a post in the beginning of May. The strategy of basically trying to enforce a self-fulfilling … Continue reading

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S&P 500 Index Between a Stabilizing Attractor and Resistance

After a fairly predictable up move that started on the 26th of last month, the S&P 500 index is now moving sideways between resistance near 1,374 and attractor support at 1,329. This sideways motion around 1,360 will continue until fundamental information provides … Continue reading

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A Test of the May Low in Silver is Highly Probable

If there is a pick-up in economic activity and indications about a possible uptick in rates, precious metals will fall. If there is further decline and talk about QE3, precious metals will rally. Technical analysis can only identify price levels with some … Continue reading

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HFT Robot Flocking is the Emergent New Order in the Markets

Flocking is the behavior of a group of birds when in flight. Such behavior is similar to the swarm behavior of insects and the herd behavior of animals. This behavior is emergent and not governed by central coordination. Flocking accomplishes certain objectives, like for example … Continue reading

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