Tag Archives: expectation

To Gamble or Not to Gamble?

Below are the results and my conclusions from a problem I posed in Twitter yesterday about gambling.

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Trading And Probabilities [Premium Articles]

We posed a problem about a fair coin toss game that resulted in a relatively high number of engagements in Twitter and interesting discussion about trading and probabilities. The conclusion is that many traders do not understand probability. For access … Continue reading

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Eight Years of Blogging And Tweeting – What Have I learned?

A summary of what I have learned in eight years of blogging about markets and quantitative trading and tweeting.

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Dealing With The Infinite Possibilities Of Price Action

In articles in blogs and in financial and social media, quants identify patterns in some securities that appear profitable or unprofitable. In many cases these attempts reflect a fight against infinite possibilities and insufficient samples but also show lack of … Continue reading

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Probability Investing

After an amazing blog post by Howard Lindzon last night mentioning probability investing I decided to write a few things about it but the topic is vast and I will have to come back. All quant traders should be aware of … Continue reading

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Chart Patterns Without Statistics is Naive Technical Analysis

I am saying the obvious but I know some will deny it: Anyone who makes bets in a game of chance without having a measure of the expectation is a naive gambler. This is what many traders do when they … Continue reading

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