Tag Archives: expectation

The Secret to Profitable Trading

Posted on March 20, 2012 by Michael Harris

Regardless of your market and timeframe, profitable trading requires that the profit expectation is greater than zero. However, this is a requirement of profitable trading and not the secret as some book authors and academic types argue. The secret is finding … Continue reading →

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More on Games with Fancy Names that People Play

Posted on December 12, 2011 by Michael Harris

Following the very popular post of last week on Games with Fancy Names, today I have a new game.  A biased coin will be tossed 1807 times. The coin bias is only 51.96%, meaning that on the average, heads will come … Continue reading →

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Games with Fancy Names

Posted on December 9, 2011 by Michael Harris

Someone asks you if you would like to play the following game: A biased coin will be tossed 1778 times. The coin bias is 54.78%, meaning that on the average, heads will come up 54.78% of the time. You win $85.50 each time … Continue reading →

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Probability is Common Sense

Posted on November 2, 2011 by Michael Harris

This is another post on the defense of common sense. In my opinion some preconceived ideas about probability and risk often attribute some common sense decisions by humans to lack of rationality. Here, I comment on a recent example from another blog.

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