Tag Archives: expectation
Below are the results and my conclusions from a problem I posed in Twitter yesterday about gambling.
We posed a problem about a fair coin toss game that resulted in a relatively high number of engagements in Twitter and interesting discussion about trading and probabilities. The conclusion is that many traders do not understand probability. For access … Continue reading
In articles in blogs and in financial and social media, quants identify patterns in some securities that appear profitable or unprofitable. In many cases these attempts reflect a fight against infinite possibilities and insufficient samples but also show lack of … Continue reading
After an amazing blog post by Howard Lindzon last night mentioning probability investing I decided to write a few things about it but the topic is vast and I will have to come back. All quant traders should be aware of … Continue reading
I am saying the obvious but I know some will deny it: Anyone who makes bets in a game of chance without having a measure of the expectation is a naive gambler. This is what many traders do when they … Continue reading