Tag Archives: forecasting

All Actions In The Markets Amount To Forecasts

All actions in the markets based on any method, technical or fundamental, amount to forecasts. Any claims that technical or fundamental analysis are not used to make forecasts but for risk management purposes only are naive and demonstrate ignorance.

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The Alarming Trend Of Influencing Asset Prices

Most traders and fund managers try to forecast asset prices. But a few market participants influence the direction of asset prices, if not determining it outright. A forecaster that goes against an influencer usually gets crushed. This is an alarming … Continue reading

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Forecasting Weekly Market Returns With DLPAL PRO

We use the ensemble feature generation of DLPL PRO with weekly data of Dow-30 stocks to forecast weekly returns. The strategy based on the ensemble features has less drawdown but the same MAR ratio as buy and hold.

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Personal Beliefs Masquerading as Forecasts

Fund managers and other finance professionals that make forecasts, especially at the beginning of a calendar year, in reality express personal beliefs. Their models, if they have any, are based on descriptive statistics that can say little about the next … Continue reading

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Goldman Sachs’ Crystal Ball

Goldman Sachs has a market crystal ball according to which the S&P 500 will return about 6.2% annually in the next 3 years and rise to 2300. But no matter whether the call was based on fancy econometric models or on … Continue reading

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