Tag Archives: forecasting
Almost daily another charlatan claims the market uptrend will continue and stocks will rise this year or in the next years. These forecasts have no value since the longer-term upward bias of the stock market is known. Investors do not … Continue reading
Included are four of the worst predictions in the last eight years in our opinion. Enjoy with how bold some market analysts and their financial media promoters can get. For access to premium content, you must be a subscriber. Please … Continue reading
All actions in the markets based on any method, technical or fundamental, amount to forecasts. Any claims that technical or fundamental analysis are not used to make forecasts but for risk management purposes only are naive and demonstrate ignorance.
We use the ensemble feature generation of DLPL PRO with weekly data of Dow-30 stocks to forecast weekly returns. The strategy based on the ensemble features has less drawdown but the same MAR ratio as buy and hold.
Fund managers and other finance professionals that make forecasts, especially at the beginning of a calendar year, in reality express personal beliefs. Their models, if they have any, are based on descriptive statistics that can say little about the next … Continue reading