Tag Archives: market timing
The conflict about over-fitted market timing strategies versus passive investing has more to do with marketing and sales than with sound quantitative analysis. It appears that the main objective of this conflict is to calm passive investors and discourage market … Continue reading
One of the most difficult problems of tactical investing is using timing strategies that are not biased due to special market conditions of the past. However, most promoters of tactical investing are unaware of this problem and rely on hypothetical … Continue reading
Book authors, bloggers and even some pundits insist that market timing is easy because it has worked in the past. But the fact is that profits depend on future market behavior. This is what some market timers are afraid of.
Six months are not responsible for all gains in stock market since 2000. This conclusion in some articles was based on the wrong choice of returns. The correct number is about 32.
Another distortion, courtesy of the low interest rate policy of the Fed, that is now way overextended and serves political goals is the “do nothing fund management.” Market timers are being replaced by accountants because fund management boards think the … Continue reading
Market timers profit at the expense of buy and hold crowd when there is an orderly crash followed by a V-bottom recovery. The chart below demonstrates these facts.