Subscribe by email
Search

Recent Posts
Popular Posts
 Datamining And Validating Thousands Of Potential Price…
 Deterministic Machine Design of Trading Systems With Strict…
 Quant Trading Without Neural Networks or Genetic Algorithms
 Fooled by Randomness Through Selection Bias
 The Most Important Performance Measure of Trading Strategies
 Identifying High Probability Shortterm Patterns
 Fooled by Machine Learning Applied to Trading Algo…
Archives
Categories
 Asset Allocation (20)
 Economic Analysis (79)
 Forex trading (8)
 Market Statistics (304)
 Premium Content (125)
 Premium Signals (4)
 Price Action Lab Alerts (133)
 Price Action Lab Patterns (157)
 Quantitative trading (121)
 Risk Management (46)
 Strategy Synthesis (87)
 Technical Analysis (816)
 Trading Strategies (152)
 Trend following (58)
 Uncategorized (34)
Tag Archives: profit factor
An Amazing Chart And Indicator
The S&P 500 chart with the Profit Factor indicator for a period of 250 days shows the persistent decline in market strength since the beginning of 2014 and how crucial it is for the index to stay above current levels.
Strategies With High Win Rate And Lower Payoff Ratio
Maintaining a constant profit factor while lowering the payoff ratio requires a strategy with higher win rate. In general, high win rate strategies are more difficult to develop but when combined with lower payoff ratio usually perform better during times … Continue reading
S&P 500: Shortterm Correction Is Near
The S&P 500 index rose to alltime highs but performance remains weak. It is possible that this was the outcome of a positive drift in random price action and a shortterm reversion to the mean is near.
Posted in Technical Analysis
Tagged profit factor
Comments Off on S&P 500: Shortterm Correction Is Near
Statistics and Lessons From the Last Three S&P 500 Uptrends
The coin is biased towards heads. The statistics indicate that the last three uptrends in S&P 500 were the result of a small structural bias in the order of +6%. This bias may continue in the absence of adverse developments.
Posted in Market Statistics
Tagged expectation, market bias, payoff ratio, profit factor
Comments Off on Statistics and Lessons From the Last Three S&P 500 Uptrends
On Investment Guru Accuracy
In a post yesterday with the title “Gurus Achieve An Astounding 47.4% Accuracy!”, Rick Ferri discusses results about the accuracy of 68 investment gurus in a study by the CXO Advisory Group. Contrary to claims made about the significance of … Continue reading
Posted in Market Statistics
Tagged coin toss, guru accurancy, profit factor, random variables
Comments Off on On Investment Guru Accuracy
Is There Any Future in Equity Index TrendFollowing?
The problem of trend following is fundamentally simple: choppy markets reduce the effectiveness of trendfollowing algorithms and shorter trend durations reduce their profitability. There is no need for a more sophisticated analysis. About 15 years ago I derived an equation that describes the problems … Continue reading
Posted in Trading Strategies, Trend following
Tagged autocorrelation, HFT, payoff ratio, profit factor, profitability rule, trend following
Comments Off on Is There Any Future in Equity Index TrendFollowing?
Risk of Ruin For Dummies
A good percentage of traders and investors get ruined because they are deceived into believing that they can be profitable in the longer term even if they are wrong more often than they are right provided they win multiples of what they lose, on … Continue reading
Posted in Risk Management
Tagged profit factor, risk of ruin, win rate
Comments Off on Risk of Ruin For Dummies