Tag Archives: S&P 500
Without a proper transformation market statistics from several decades ago are not meaningful. Usually the transformation is unknown and that makes comparison not useful. This applies to many trivial statistics, such as streaks with no occurrence of an event or … Continue reading
In the last three days the S&P 500 has moved less than 0.33% overall but this has also happened a few times in the 60s and 70s. Extremely low volatility in stock market indexes is not a new phenomenon but its … Continue reading
Despite new all-time highs and a rally in technology stocks, S&P 500 and NASDAQ 10-year rolling returns remain below their longer-term averages. In fact, in the last four years the 10-year rolling return is range bound in spite of interventions … Continue reading
Everyone in financial media is now talking about Vanguard and how it controls more than 80% of the money invested in index funds. Have investors forgotten the recent brutality of the stock market or are they just convinced that another … Continue reading
The S&P 500 is an intelligent trading strategy and a popular benchmark. I show below that the probability of obtaining the mean return of the S&P 500 by chance is extremely low.