Tag Archives: SPX

SPX Death Cross is Dead

Posted on July 18, 2012 by Michael Harris

This is not good even for longer-term investors. Using a 50-day moving average crossing a 200-day moving average to make trading or investment decisions is like trying to race against a sports car on a bicycle. In this post I show with … Continue reading →

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Market Price Action is Discounting Another Round of QE

Posted on June 16, 2012 by Michael Harris

It appears that the two previous rounds of quantitative easing have maintained the coupling between commodity prices and stock prices. But this coupling broke in the third quarter of last year and this could mean that the rising stock market is … Continue reading →

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An S&P 500 Pattern to Think About

Posted on June 13, 2012 by Michael Harris

Statisticians claim that a sample must be significant in order to be able to draw conclusions from it. This is true unless there is already a causal relationship of the form P implies Q, or said differently, P is a sufficient condition for … Continue reading →

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Short-Lived Rebound or a Bottoming Process?

Posted on June 8, 2012 by Michael Harris

The market rebounded during the last three trading sessions but yesterday’s price action was indicative of short-term weakness with the S&P 500 Index closing unchanged after spending most of the day in positive territory. Will the correction resume or is this part of a … Continue reading →

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The Technical Picture of the Market is not Very Clear

Posted on June 2, 2012 by Michael Harris

One thing about technical analysis that makes it modern alchemy is that analysts can focus only on what appears important to them. There is not any established hierarchy of signals in terms of their importance. As a result, a correction that one analyst calls … Continue reading →

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Bears are Scared

Posted on May 25, 2012 by Michael Harris

Stock market bears are scared. I base this on the fact that the S&P 500 index made a short-term bottom above its 200-day simple moving average. I also suspect that a good percentage of the current stock bears are the bond … Continue reading →

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Market May Have Found Support and a Base for Moving Higher

Posted on April 24, 2012 by Michael Harris

For now it appears that 1358 points in the S&P 500 Index may turn to support and become the base for another attempt towards 1440 and then 1500.  There are a few technical signs that point to this possible scenario although European debt … Continue reading →

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Is 1,340 the Next Stop in the Correction for S&P 500 Index?

Posted on April 16, 2012 by Michael Harris

What is next for S&P 500 and SPY? Will the correction resume towards 1,340 or the market will rebound to higher levels? Actually charts provide no useful clues about future direction at this point, making this look like a fair coin toss.   

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Profit Target Hit. What is Next for SPY?

Posted on March 14, 2012 by Michael Harris

Before the open of Tuesday of last week I posted analysis of a pattern formed in SPY, an inside day downside breakout, and I showed that historically it has been a bullish signal.  The profit target of that pattern was hit … Continue reading →

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A Short-term Bullish Pattern in SPY

Posted on March 6, 2012 by Michael Harris

The inside day downside breakout pattern formed in SPY and S&P 500 Index as of the close of Monday, March 5, 2012, has not been historically a short signal. As a matter of fact, historically, it has been a profitable long signal. Also, the current variation … Continue reading →

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