Tag Archives: SPX

Protracted Low Volatility Is Not An Unusual Phenomenon

Some traders complain in social media that volatility has stayed low for a long time or for longer than expected. According to those traders, this is an unusual phenomenon. Some are even upset blaming central banks for the low volatility … Continue reading

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The Month Of August Hides A Few Surprises

During one of the worst stock markets downtrends in 2008, the S&P 500 managed to gain 1.22% in August of that year. But last year, the S&P 500 fell 6.3% although the market was in a strong uptrend. The month … Continue reading

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Another Rare Pattern Just Formed in S&P 500

In the last two years the market has formed some very rare patterns, including the longest consolidation channel in its recent history, a record period with no back-to-back gains and some rare intraday reversals. The latest rare pattern is related … Continue reading

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VIX Does Not Always Move Opposite To S&P 500

Yesterday the S&P 500 fell but VIX also fell. Some traders were expecting VIX to rise since stocks fell. But in the markets there are no perfect correlations. Historically, the VIX has moved opposite to S&P 500 about 78% of … Continue reading

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Gloom and Doom Amid a Normal Correction

Based on an analysis of S&P 500 2-month returns, the current correction is still a normal event. Although corrections can signal the start of a bear market, such a scenario can be supported now only by wishful thinking.

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A Lesson For the Bears From 2007

Bears almost never get a top where they want it. During 2007, the S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average and then rose above it three times before forming a top and in the meantime it also made new highs squeezing … Continue reading

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SPX Death Cross is Dead

This is not good even for longer-term investors. Using a 50-day moving average crossing a 200-day moving average to make trading or investment decisions is like trying to race against a sports car on a bicycle. In this post I show with … Continue reading

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Market Price Action is Discounting Another Round of QE

It appears that the two previous rounds of quantitative easing have maintained the coupling between commodity prices and stock prices. But this coupling broke in the third quarter of last year and this could mean that the rising stock market is … Continue reading

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