Tag Archives: SPX

A Lesson For the Bears From 2007

Bears almost never get a top where they want it. During 2007, the S&P 500 fell below its 200-day moving average and then rose above it three times before forming a top and in the meantime it also made new highs squeezing … Continue reading

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SPX Death Cross is Dead

This is not good even for longer-term investors. Using a 50-day moving average crossing a 200-day moving average to make trading or investment decisions is like trying to race against a sports car on a bicycle. In this post I show with … Continue reading

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Market Price Action is Discounting Another Round of QE

It appears that the two previous rounds of quantitative easing have maintained the coupling between commodity prices and stock prices. But this coupling broke in the third quarter of last year and this could mean that the rising stock market is … Continue reading

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An S&P 500 Pattern to Think About

Statisticians claim that a sample must be significant in order to be able to draw conclusions from it. This is true unless there is already a causal relationship of the form P implies Q, or said differently, P is a sufficient condition for … Continue reading

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Short-Lived Rebound or a Bottoming Process?

The market rebounded during the last three trading sessions but yesterday’s price action was indicative of short-term weakness with the S&P 500 Index closing unchanged after spending most of the day in positive territory. Will the correction resume or is this part of a … Continue reading

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The Technical Picture of the Market is not Very Clear

One thing about technical analysis that makes it modern alchemy is that analysts can focus only on what appears important to them. There is not any established hierarchy of signals in terms of their importance. As a result, a correction that one analyst calls … Continue reading

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Bears are Scared

Stock market bears are scared. I base this on the fact that the S&P 500 index made a short-term bottom above its 200-day simple moving average. I also suspect that a good percentage of the current stock bears are the bond … Continue reading

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