Tag Archives: technical analysis

Short Term Correction or Changing Market Conditions?

The short-term market direction at this point in time will depend on the state of the underline fundamental conditions that fueled the rally.  The main forces behind this stock rally were persistent investor buying and the FED resolve to avert deflationary pressures. The … Continue reading

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Gold False Breakout to the Downside

Spot gold has gained more than $45 after testing longer-term resistance near $1,540 last week. Some technical analysts have recently focused on some, in my view, random pattern formations on the gold chart and have pointed to an imminent collapse. Recent … Continue reading

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A Test of the May Low in Silver is Highly Probable

If there is a pick-up in economic activity and indications about a possible uptick in rates, precious metals will fall. If there is further decline and talk about QE3, precious metals will rally. Technical analysis can only identify price levels with some … Continue reading

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Chart Analysis is Not a Trading Method

Chart analysis can provide a context for experienced discretionary traders for coming up with subjective probabilities, which are then updated by proven, high expectation methods. Chart analysis alone is a negative expectation trading method because charts nowadays are available to everyone with access to the Internet. … Continue reading

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The Four TA Patterns on the GLD Chart that Failed

This post could have the title “Beware of Greeks Baring Gifts No 2″ as a sequel to my original post on October 1, 2011 where I warned about the pending failure of the obvious pennant formation in GLD, a chart pattern … Continue reading

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S&P 500 Index Bouncing off its 200-SMA. Self-fulfilling Prophecy?

This question is proper for the whole of Technical Analysis; Is Technical Analysis a self-fulfilling prophecy? Take a look for example at the daily S&P 500 chart below, updated as of the close of yesterday. The low for the day was … Continue reading

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The State of ETFs – April 18, 2011 – The Week Ahead

Both ETFs that I have marked as overbought in last week’s report,  DBC and USO, corrected immediately starting last Monday and are now moving sideways short-term. As of the close of Friday, April 15, 2011, there are only 4 changes in the ETF trend … Continue reading

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The State of ETFs – April 11, 2011 – The Week Ahead

As of the close of Friday, April 8, 2011, there are 6 changes in the ETF trend state table in relation to previous Friday’s close. Two tickers are in overbought territory, one ticker is approaching overbought conditions and one ticker is close to becoming … Continue reading

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