Tag Archives: TLT

The 60/40 Passive Allocation is Holding Strong In A Rough Market

Despite calls for its death in mainstream financial media earlier this year, the 60/40 portfolio in stocks and bonds is holding strong. A decrease by about 350 basis points from peak year-to-date return is due to the rise in correlation … Continue reading

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Stocks-Bonds Correlation Spikes

The 60-day stock-bonds correlation spiked this month from about -0.50 to +0.20. A similar spike occurred mid 2007 and just a few months before the stock market top.

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A Chart That Has Consistently Defied Technical Analysis

Has the 10-Year Note yield found a bottom? Many good technical analysts are trying to find an answer to this question. However, the chart has defied simple technical analysis since the top in 1981 and has done that consistently. “Is … Continue reading

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Backtesting Conundrum

About a week ago I ran into a backtesting conundrum while analyzing a simple relative strength ETF rotation strategy.  A call to quants to compare results received only one answer but the cooperation led to a solution and to a … Continue reading

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A Significant Anomaly in Bonds [Premium Articles]

Since the inception of TLT, a little less than 50% of the buy and hold gains have occurred on Fridays and that increases to nearly 100% since 2011. This calendar effect is a significant anomaly and shows that markets are … Continue reading

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Bonds Rally But Any Upside May Be limited

Bond yields retreated from their highs yesterday for the third consecutive day due to banking problems in a small EU nation. The 10-year yield fell from a high of 2.09% two weeks ago to close at 1.91% yesterday but any downside … Continue reading

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What You Can Do in Case of Rising Inflation

I believe that inflationary pressures will remain low for a few more years. But as we all know, the market is also affected by crowd psychology and inflation can be triggered because of fear of rising prices in the future. … Continue reading

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TLT and SPY Technical Analysis

TLT managed a test of its 200-day simple moving average and SPY tested the upper trendline of the up-channel it broke to the upside last week. Both want to go up and this is indicated by the increasing correlation (or decreasing anti-correlation).

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