Tag Archives: TLT

Backtesting Conundrum

About a week ago I ran into a backtesting conundrum while analyzing a simple relative strength ETF rotation strategy.  A call to quants to compare results received only one answer but the cooperation led to a solution and to a … Continue reading

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A Significant Anomaly in Bonds [Premium Articles]

Since the inception of TLT, a little less than 50% of the buy and hold gains have occurred on Fridays and that increases to nearly 100% since 2011. This calendar effect is a significant anomaly and shows that markets are … Continue reading

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Bonds Rally But Any Upside May Be limited

Bond yields retreated from their highs yesterday for the third consecutive day due to banking problems in a small EU nation. The 10-year yield fell from a high of 2.09% two weeks ago to close at 1.91% yesterday but any downside … Continue reading

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What You Can Do in Case of Rising Inflation

I believe that inflationary pressures will remain low for a few more years. But as we all know, the market is also affected by crowd psychology and inflation can be triggered because of fear of rising prices in the future. … Continue reading

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TLT and SPY Technical Analysis

TLT managed a test of its 200-day simple moving average and SPY tested the upper trendline of the up-channel it broke to the upside last week. Both want to go up and this is indicated by the increasing correlation (or decreasing anti-correlation).

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The Bond Market’s Negative Reception of QE3 and What It Means

Yields rallied after QE3 was announced. The 10-year note yield jumped and made an exact test of its 200-day moving average at 1.84%, just two basis points below medium-term resistance at 1.86%. After some wild swings the yield closed unchanged. The … Continue reading

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