Tag Archives: ^TNX

Never start a fight with the FED because you will lose

Posted on April 20, 2012 by Michael Harris

The lesson is never start a fight with the FED. When it comes to bonds, the FED is the boss, not some bond fund managers who are just the humble servants of the FED although they often commit the original financial sin of trying to overthrow the … Continue reading →

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TLT Rebounds with Falling Bond Yields

Posted on March 22, 2012 by Michael Harris

Two days ago, I used technical and price action analysis and warned about a pending rebound in TLT, when the predominant view was that of an immediate collapse. TLT gained $1.69 since the close of last Tuesday. How high can this rebound reach?

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Bond Prices May Still Have a Long Way to Go

Posted on February 12, 2012 by Michael Harris

Although yields have risen recently with the 10-year Note near 1.97% and the 30-year Bond near 3.122%, up from their January lows of 1.80% and  2.88%, respectively, bond prices may have a long way to go if economic and geopolitical uncertainty continues and as … Continue reading →

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Bond Yields Are Dropping in the Face of Increasing Global Uncertainty

Posted on January 27, 2012 by Michael Harris

Bond Yields dropped after the FED announcement of their interest rate policy. The 10-Year Note yield fell below 2% after breaking above the upper tendline  of the down-channel it has formed since last November. It appears that inflation expectations play a secondary role … Continue reading →

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Sustained Negative Correlation Bewteen Stock and Bond Returns is Problematic

Posted on January 12, 2012 by Michael Harris

Over the longer-term stock and bond returns show a small but positive correlation. Periods of sustained low negative correlation usually indicate increasing stock market uncertainty and risk. The 120-day rolling correlation between SPY and TLT has been on a downtrend since February of last … Continue reading →

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Three Charts That Hide the Future – SPX – NDX – TNX

Posted on December 22, 2011 by Michael Harris

It appears that the positive correlation between bond yields and stock prices will continue into the new year. This correlation acts as a constraint to asset price moves and limits the possibilities to only two: when stocks decline bond prices rise and when stocks rise bond … Continue reading →

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Bond Prices Approaching Strong Resistance -TLT -TNX

Posted on December 20, 2011 by Michael Harris

The recent rally in bond prices was caused by weakening economy activity around the world and the prospects of more quantitative easing in the US but also in Europe. TLT, the ETF that tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury … Continue reading →

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Bond Yields Are Testing Crucial Levels

Posted on June 30, 2011 by Michael Harris

After a rally in bond prices that lasted almost 5 months, contrary to the expectations of many, the current three day correction has activated again important technical levels. Specifically, the CBOE Index of interest rate of 10-yr Note closed yesterday at 3.11, … Continue reading →

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