Tag Archives: trend following
Many of us who were trend-followers in the 1990s find the current notion of equity trend-following sort of peculiar, if not amusing, due to hindsight bias effect.
Negative autocorrelation is not necessary for a major top but when it becomes significant and keeps increasing it may be a warning sign. This is the case this month.
Neal Berger, the CIO of Eagle’s View Asset Management, thinks trend-following and other “pedestrian” quant strategies, such as momentum, won’t survive due to lack of dumb money. I have also been saying this for a few years.
One of the most difficult problems of tactical investing is using timing strategies that are not biased due to special market conditions of the past. However, most promoters of tactical investing are unaware of this problem and rely on hypothetical … Continue reading
Before elevating trend-following and momentum in general to the status of a factor, this question must be answered: where do trend-following profits come from? Obviously, part of momentum literature ignores this important question.
All actions in the markets based on any method, technical or fundamental, amount to forecasts. Any claims that technical or fundamental analysis are not used to make forecasts but for risk management purposes only are naive and demonstrate ignorance.