Tag Archives: trend following

Another Long Uptrend in Stocks is Unlikely to Occur in the Near Future

The last golden cross in S&P 500 occurred on January 31, 2012. The 50-dma has stayed above the 200-dma for 774 days, or more than three years. It will probably take a while to have another golden cross that lasts … Continue reading

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Why Every Trader Should Know and Understand This Formula

There is a formula that every trader should know and understand. It relates the win fraction to the profit factor and payoff ratio. An understanding of this formula can provide useful guidance about the risks  in different trading timeframes. Share

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A Trend-follower’s Nightmare

Hindsight is a trader’s worst enemy because there is no guarantee that the future will be like the past. Yet, many books and articles promote trend-following based on hindsight. This blog offers an example of how a trend-follower’s worst nightmare … Continue reading

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Social Media Woes and the Risks of Trend-following

Trend-followers in social media stocks and ETFs that did not apply prudent risk and money management schemes are risking going into the red. The dynamics of the uptrend and of the decline that followed did not leave any room for naive trend-following … Continue reading

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The Passive Indexing Buy and Hold Crowd Should Reconsider

They should reconsider their unreasonable stand against active management after taking a closer look at the enclosed chart. In my opinion, 15 trades in 13.5 years are not such a big deal for the type of dramatic improvement in returns. … Continue reading

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Expect More High-Tech Competition

Due to a crowding effect in HFT domain and a continuous decrease in profitability a lot of those firms are now moving to momentum, swing and trend-following domains in an effort to recoup their initial investment. Thus, retail traders and … Continue reading

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