Tag Archives: USO

DBC is Full of Oil

In the last two days, DBC, the commodity ETF managed by Deutsche Bank, and USO and UCO, two other ETFs that are energy related, all dropped exactly -3.50%. The high 60-day rolling correlation between DBC and the other two ETFs is … Continue reading

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Price Action Lab Alert for Monday, April 2, 2012

This alert is about long and short signals in major ETFs.

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Short-term Correction or Market Top?

In my last ETF Trends report I noted that index ETFs were in overbought territory and that a spillover of commodity volatility into the stock market was possible. Since the beginning of this week SPY and QQQ have lost about … Continue reading

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Short-term Direction Probabilities for Popular ETFs

The probabilities for profitable short-term long and short positions based on a typical profit target and stop-loss equal to 2%, are listed for eleven popular ETFs, as of the close of March 1, 2012. These probabilities were calculated using the p-indicator.

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Is the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern in Crude Oil Significant at All?

A chart pattern under formation in crude oil since the middle of last November resembles to an inverse head and shoulders. Does it make any sense to base any forecasts on this pattern? I argue that while this pattern is interesting, it does … Continue reading

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Probability of Short-term Direction for Selected ETFs

Probabilities for short-term up and down moves for 11 popular ETFs are calculated by the p-indicator. The results show that GLD has the highest positive bias and USO the lowest negative bias for directional moves with a 3% upside and downside … Continue reading

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ETF Returns for 2011 and the Five Lessons I Learned

The market some heavy names were trying to convince us that it will suffer the most actually returned the most by far. What is happening here? Have we learned our lessons or are we destined to repeat the same mistakes in 2012? Five lessons … Continue reading

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