Tag Archives: win rate

Stationary Win Rate Examples

Visual chartists, also known as noise traders, in the process of defending a method with low win rate claim that high win rate strategies do not exist. When presented with evidence to the contrary they argue that high win rate … Continue reading

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The Scariest Chart Of All

Despite eight years of relentless support to equity markets by a group of central banks, in the last two and a half years there is an alarming trend, as this chart shows.

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Rule No. 1 And The Importance of High Win Rate

Rule No. 1 is never lose money. Rule No. 2 is: never forget Rule No. 1. These are the rules, reality may be different. Even Warren Buffett who stated these rules has lost money. But the idea is to aim … Continue reading

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Strategies With High Win Rate And Lower Payoff Ratio

Maintaining a constant profit factor while lowering the payoff ratio requires a strategy with higher win rate. In general, high win rate strategies are more difficult to develop but when combined with lower payoff ratio usually perform better during times … Continue reading

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Downtrends in Stocks May Involve a High Proportion of Winning Days

The downtrend in stocks due to the financial crisis is a good example of a situation where a large correction occurs while the proportion of winning days stays high. This can offer bulls a wrong impression of a pending reversal … Continue reading

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BlueTrend Fund, Trend-Following and Data-mining

The BlueTrend fund returned 45.78% in 2008, in a year that the S&P 500 index fell 37% on a total return basis. However, in recent years the performance of the fund has deteriorated. I first present an analysis of the … Continue reading

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