Tag Archives: yields

Bond Bear Market Forecasts May Be Premature

Posted on January 3, 2013 by Michael Harris

As long as unemployment remains high and machines are replacing humans even in the service sector (read this piece by Josh Brown ) the probability is still high that the spike in yields is just due to the anti-correlation between stocks and bonds … Continue reading →

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Bond Bears Are Ready to Give Up

Posted on November 27, 2012 by Michael Harris

This probably means that a bond bear market is coming closer because even big names in the investment industry seem to have given up and are adding to their bond portfolios. However, a rapid rise in yields will not affect pension … Continue reading →

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Bond Yields Rise Despite Expectations of More QE

Posted on September 13, 2012 by Michael Harris

Although in the long-term more quantitative easing may cause inflation to rise, in the short-term it should cause yields to fall. However, bond market participants in the last few days were selling bonds causing a rise in yields. Why would … Continue reading →

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TLT Rebounds with Falling Bond Yields

Posted on March 22, 2012 by Michael Harris

Two days ago, I used technical and price action analysis and warned about a pending rebound in TLT, when the predominant view was that of an immediate collapse. TLT gained $1.69 since the close of last Tuesday. How high can this rebound reach?

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Bond Prices May Still Have a Long Way to Go

Posted on February 12, 2012 by Michael Harris

Although yields have risen recently with the 10-year Note near 1.97% and the 30-year Bond near 3.122%, up from their January lows of 1.80% and  2.88%, respectively, bond prices may have a long way to go if economic and geopolitical uncertainty continues and as … Continue reading →

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Sustained Negative Correlation Bewteen Stock and Bond Returns is Problematic

Posted on January 12, 2012 by Michael Harris

Over the longer-term stock and bond returns show a small but positive correlation. Periods of sustained low negative correlation usually indicate increasing stock market uncertainty and risk. The 120-day rolling correlation between SPY and TLT has been on a downtrend since February of last … Continue reading →

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TLT Prices May Attempt to Retest Important Resistance

Posted on December 28, 2011 by Michael Harris

Bond yields rose recently and as a result prices fell. TLT, the ETF that tracks the Barclays Capital U.S. 20+ Year Treasury Bond Index, corrected after testing resistance near its all-time high. Prices are now below a very important resistance level … Continue reading →

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Bond Yields Are Testing Crucial Levels

Posted on June 30, 2011 by Michael Harris

After a rally in bond prices that lasted almost 5 months, contrary to the expectations of many, the current three day correction has activated again important technical levels. Specifically, the CBOE Index of interest rate of 10-yr Note closed yesterday at 3.11, … Continue reading →

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Bill Gross Sold His Holdings of US Treasuries – What Does Technical Analysis Tell Us About His Move?

Posted on March 12, 2011 by Michael Harris

Bill Gross, the founder of PIMCO, sold his Treasury bond holdings late last month as reported by Bloomberg. The manager of the world’s largest bond fund said that he thinks yields are low and he may buy Treasuries again when yields … Continue reading →

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