Has the 10-Year Note yield found a bottom? Many good technical analysts are trying to find an answer to this question. However, the chart has defied simple technical analysis since the top in 1981 and has done that consistently. “Is this time different?”
Some well-known technical analysts will argue that “This time is different” and the bottom in the yield was already established near 1.34% last July. But the fact is that the 10-Year Note yield chart has been a graveyard of simple technical analysis (lines, patterns, indicators, etc.) since the top in 1981, as shown in the chart below:
“Is this time different?” Maybe a better question is:
“If you believe that 10-Year Note yield has found a bottom, or even that it will rally, are you lucky enough so that this time is different?”
I will only remind of the confidence some technical analysts and bond traders had in an obscure complex top in bond prices in 2012 that failed with a loud noise.
Because what one can observe from the above chart is a “no mercy” to simple technical analysis.
I have no idea about the answer. The only people that know are those who determine monetary and fiscal policy, if they have made up their mind already.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker
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