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S&P 500 Must Drop 50% For Permabears To Break Even

Permabears know it and they realize they are screwed now. Even If the S%P 500  falls 50% and they manage to short the top, they will just break even.

To start with: how to you know permabears exist in the first place? I know because they are the same people who in the last 8 years show constantly indicators that are supposed to predict market tops or refer to economic statistics that are supposed to imply the economy is in trouble.

Below is the chart of S&P 500 total return (SPY) since 2013, when the bull market actually started, after prices broke above the 2007 high.

The SPY total return is 108% since 2013. This means that even if SPY plunges 50%, permabears will just break even assuming perfect timing of a short. But timing will not be perfect and they will end up with a net loss compared to bulls.

This is a devastating fact for bears. The bull market lasted for too long and prices rose too high just ridiculing permabears.

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Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker

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