This premium report allows limited free access. The report is for week of April 13, 2020, and includes analysis of major market indexes and sector ETFs. Access to full article requires Premium Articles subscription.
- Weekly summary and recap.
- Major Index weekly analysis.
- Major index overbought/oversold conditions.
- Low volatility versus high beta large caps analysis.
- Sector performance.
- Chart of the week.
1. Weekly summary
- Stocks rallied the most since 1974.
- Bond prices fell and yields rose.
- Gold gained while crude oil fell.
- U.S. dollar was under pressure.
Recap (April 6, 2020 – April 9, 2020)
|10-Year Note||+14 bps||-1.19%|
|WTI Crude Spot||-19.3%||-62.6%|
2. S&P 500 weekly analysis
The S&P 500 had its best week since 1974 with a gain of 12.1%.
PAL OB/OS indicator crossed above the 40-week moving average and it is highly likely it will rise further before profit taking. Last week we wrote:
Next week the market may attempt to rally but any such move will not carry any significance for forecasting medium-term direction.
The 12.1% gain this week for S&P 500 was little higher than the November 2008 gain at 12.03% and lower than a 14.12% gain in October 1974.
In 1974 the large weekly gain occurred at the bottom but in 2008 it took three more months for the bottom formation. Also see this article.
In a recent Premium Insights article we included an indicator that has the potential of timing a bottom. Below is the chart with this indicator updated as of the close of Thursday, April 9, 2020.
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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price target levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No updates to charts will be provided if market condition changes occur that affect the levels on the charts and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker
Data provider: Norgate Data