The report is for week of June 29, 2020, and includes analysis of major market indexes and ETFs. Access to full article requires Premium Articles subscription.
- Weekly summary and recap.
- Weekly analysis of major indexes.
- Major index overbought/oversold conditions.
- Analysis of popular ETFs.
- Low volatility versus high beta analysis.
- Sector performance.
- Chart of the week.
No 2 above includes:
- S&P 500 weekly analysis.
- An important ratio indicator.
- Correlation pattern of S&P 100 index constituents.
- Market bottom indicator status.
1. Weekly summary
- Stocks were lower in a broad sell-off.
- High beta large caps were under selling pressure.
- Bond yields were down on the week.
- Gold was higher and crude oil fell.
- U.S. dollar was slightly lower on the week.
Recap (June 22, 2020 – June 26, 2020)
|10-Year Note||-6 bps||-1.28%|
|Gold (London fix)||+0.7%||+14.7%|
|WTI Crude Spot||-3.0%||-37.0%|
2. Weekly analysis of major indexes
The S&P 500 fell 2.9% on the week.
The index failed to make new highs early in the week and then retreated to close on Friday at 3009.05, below support at 2027 and also below the 40-week moving average (at 3025.92.) Momentum as measured by the PAL OB/OS indicator decreased rapidly. This indicator points to higher probability of continuation of last week’s sell-off.
The important question after this reversal is the following: Is the sell-off of last week the beginning of another correction towards the low of May 14 at 2766.64, or even the March 23 low at 2191.86, or that was due to normal price action? Below is how we attempt to answer this question.
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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price target levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No updates to charts will be provided if market condition changes occur that affect the levels on the charts and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker
Data provider: Norgate Data