- Weekly summary and recap.
- Weekly analysis of major indexes.
- Major index overbought/oversold conditions.
- Analysis of popular and country ETFs.
- Low volatility versus high beta analysis.
- Sector performance.
- Chart of the week.
No 2 above includes:
- S&P 500 weekly technical analysis.
- NASDAQ-100 analysis.
- S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 directional probabilities.
- Correlation pattern of S&P 100 index constituents.
1. Weekly summary
- Stocks fell on the week.
- Tech stocks were down for a second week in a row.
- Bond yields fell and prices rose.
- Gold surged as U.S. dollar fell.
- Crude oil gained but market remains weak.
- U.S. dollar was lower for a fifth week in a row.
Recap (July 20, 2020 – July 24 2020)
|10-Year Note||-4 bps||-1.33%|
|Gold (London fix)||+5.2%||+24.9%|
|WTI Crude Spot||+1.8%||-32.6%|
2. Weekly analysis of major indexes
The S&P 500 fell 0.3% on the week.
Last week we wrote:
The odds are in favor of a test of 3260 probably early next week followed by a rise towards 3300. Then the index will become overbought in the weekly timeframe and volatility may increase.
The index made a high of 3279.99 on Thursday but then fell to close on Friday about 2% below the weekly high.
PAL OB/OS points to decreasing momentum in the weekly timeframe with potential for a fall towards the 40-week moving average around 67; that could coincide with a test of support near 3130 in the S&P 500 index, or 2.6% below Friday’s close.
NASDAQ-100 fell 1.5% on the week. Back-to-back weekly losses in this index amount to -3.3%. In the last two weeks S&P 500 has risen 1% and as a result there is a divergence between the two indexes but that is the outcome of a crowded trade in tech stocks; NASDAQ-100 is up 20% year-to-date while S&P 500 is down 0.5%.
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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price target levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No updates to charts will be provided if market condition changes occur that affect the levels on the charts and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker
Data provider: Norgate Data