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Stock Market Technicals For Week of July 27, 2020 [Premium Articles]

The report is for week of July 27, 2020, and includes analysis of major market indexes and ETFs. Access to full article requires Premium Articles subscription.

Report contents

  1. Weekly summary and recap.
  2. Weekly analysis of major indexes.
  3. Major index overbought/oversold conditions.
  4. Analysis of popular and country ETFs.
  5. Low volatility versus high beta analysis.
  6. Sector performance.
  7. Chart of the week.
  8. Conclusion.

No 2 above includes:

  • S&P 500 weekly technical analysis.
  • NASDAQ-100 analysis.
  • S&P 500 and NASDAQ-100 directional probabilities.
  • Correlation pattern of S&P 100 index constituents.

1. Weekly summary

  • Stocks fell on the week.
  • Tech stocks were down for a second week in a row.
  • Bond yields fell and prices rose.
  • Gold surged as U.S. dollar fell.
  • Crude oil gained but market remains weak.
  • U.S. dollar was lower for a fifth week in a row.

Recap (July 20, 2020 – July 24 2020)

Index Week YTD
S&P 500 -0.3% -0.5%
DJIA -0.8% -7.3%
NASDAQ -1.3% +15.5%
Russell 2000 -0.4% -12.0%
10-Year Note -4 bps -1.33%
Gold (London fix) +5.2% +24.9%
Dollar Index -1.6% -1.8%
WTI Crude Spot +1.8% -32.6%
Bitcoin Futures +4.8% +36.8%

2. Weekly analysis of major indexes

The S&P 500 fell 0.3% on the week.

Last week we wrote:

The odds are in favor of a test of 3260 probably early next week followed by a rise towards 3300. Then the index will become overbought in the weekly timeframe and volatility may increase.

The index made a high of 3279.99 on Thursday but then fell to close on Friday about 2% below the weekly high.

PAL OB/OS points to decreasing momentum in the weekly timeframe with potential for a fall towards the 40-week moving average around 67; that could coincide with a test of support near 3130 in the S&P 500 index, or 2.6% below Friday’s close.

NASDAQ-100 fell 1.5% on the week. Back-to-back weekly losses in this index amount to -3.3%. In the last two weeks S&P 500 has risen 1% and as a result there is a divergence between the two indexes but that is the outcome of a crowded trade in tech stocks; NASDAQ-100 is up 20% year-to-date while S&P 500 is down 0.5%.

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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price target levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No updates to charts will be provided if market condition changes occur that affect the levels on the charts and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer:  No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker

Data provider: Norgate Data

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