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Market Analysis For Week of November 15, 2021 [Premium Articles]

Market analysis for week of November 15, 2021. The analysis focuses on major market indexes, ETFs, commodities and forex. Access to full article requires Premium Articles subscription or All in One subscription.

Report contents

  1. Weekly summary and recap.
  2. Analysis of major indexes.
  3. Popular ETFs.
  4. Commodity ETFs.
  5. Spot currency pairs.
  6. Markets to Watch.

1. Weekly summary and recap

  • U.S. stocks were lower after a five-week winning streak.
  • High beta large caps and small caps fell.
  • Bond prices were lower and yields rose.
  • Commodities rebounded on the week.
  • Gold was up but crude oil fell.
  • The U.S. dollar index gained for a third week in a row.

Recap (November 8, 2021 – November 12, 2021)

After rising 7.8% in the previous five weeks towards in overbought territory, the stock market (S&P 500) took a breather. Large caps (S&P 500) fell 0.3%, tech stocks (NASDAQ-100) were down 1% and the Dow 30 shed 0.6%. Small caps (Russell 2000) lost 1%. High beta large caps dropped 1.3% on the week. Bond prices also fell and yields rose. Crude oil spot delivery fell 0.5%. Gold rallied to end the week up 3.3% while the U.S. dollar index gained 0.9%. The CRB gained 0.9%. Year-to-date crude oil is up 67.3% followed by CRB index with 41.3% gain. Treasury Bond Total Return is down -2.2% followed by gold at -1.6%.

2. Analysis of major indexes

The S&P 500 index fell 0.3% to close at 4682.85 for the week.

Last week I wrote:

The index is now overbought for two weeks in a row in the weekly timeframe according to PAL OB/OS indicator and for four days in a row in the daily timeframe according to RSI(14).

As expected with higher probability, the stock market took a breather. Is this the start of a correction?

Most technical analysis indicators cannot answer this question because they lag price and often significantly. This is one reason in the last few years many traders have turned to fundamental indicators for answers but those have even higher lag in the order of many months or even years. I look at some idiosyncratic technical indicators to get some clues about market direction, such as the one shown below, which seems to have done not bad in the past.

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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price target levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No updates to charts will be provided if market condition changes occur that affect the levels on the charts and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer:  No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

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