Market analysis for the week of December 12, 2022. Major market indexes, ETFs, commodities, and forex. This report includes 19 charts and tables. Access to the full report requires a Premium Articles or an All-in-One subscription.
- Weekly Summary.
- Chart of the Week.
- Market Performance Recap.
- Analysis of Market Indexes.
- Commodity ETFs and ETNs.
- Strategy ETFs.
- Spot Currency Pairs.
- Strategic Allocations.
1. Weekly Summary (December 5 – December 9, 2022)
- Stocks fell as uncertainty about interest rates grew.
- Bonds ended a four-week win streak and yields rose.
- Commodities were down for the week due to losses in energy.
- The US dollar was slightly up against most major currencies.
The US dollar and spot gold both ended the week with small gains. Stocks and bonds fell due to growing uncertainty about inflation and interest rate policy. Equities indexes finished the week near their lows.
Large-cap stocks ($SPX) fell 3.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) was down 2.8%. Small caps ($RUT) plunged 5.1%. Tech stocks ($NDX) ended the week with a loss of 3.6%. The S&P 500 high beta index ($SP5HBI) shed 4.2%. The S&P 500 low volatility index ($SP5LVI) lost 1.4%.
US Treasury Bonds ($SPBDUSBT) ended a four-week winning streak with a loss of 0.3%. The 10-year Note gained six basis points to 3.57%. The spot price of crude oil (@WTI) fell 11%. Spot gold (@GC) gained 0.6%. The CRB index ($CRB) lost 3.8%. The US dollar index ($USDX) gained 0.3%.
Year-to-date, the CRB index is up 14.6%, and the US dollar index has gained 9.6%. Tech stocks are down the most, with a loss of 29.1% for the year.
Total return equity indices
All total return equity indices were down for the week. The Russell 2000 index fell the most (-5.1%), while the S&P 500 low volatility index was down the least (-1.4%). There are no overbought or oversold total return indices.
Year-to-date, the S&P 500 low volatility index is down the least (-3.9%) and 5.7% off its all-time highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average index is down 2.7% year-to-date and 6% off its all-time highs.
The S&P 500 total return index is down 16.2% year to date and 16.7% off its highs. The NASDAQ-100 is the worst-performing index, down 28.6% for the year and 29.6% below its all-time highs.
The ensemble of our six systematic strategies is down 5.2% year-to-date, compared to a 17.5% loss for the S&P 500 index and a loss of 14.5% for the 60/40 portfolio with SPY and AGG ETFs. Our PSI5TF trend-following strategy with 23 futures contracts (long and short) is up 19.6% year to date.
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2. Chart Of The Week
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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price target levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No updates to charts will be provided if market condition changes occur that affect the levels on the charts and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data
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