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The Price Action Lab Report-Week of March 6, 2023 [Premium Articles]

Photo by Burak The Weekender

Market analysis for the week of March 6, 2023. Major market indexes, ETFs, commodities, and forex. This report includes 15 charts and tables. Free access to weekly summary. Access to the full report requires a Premium Articles or an All-in-One subscription.

Report contents

  1. Weekly Summary.
  2. Chart of the Week.
  3. Market Performance Recap.
  4. Major Market Indexes.
  5. Commodity ETFs and ETNs.
  6. Strategy ETFs.
  7. Spot Currency Pairs.
  8. Strategic Allocations.

1. Weekly Summary (February 27 – March 3, 2023)

  • Stocks gained after Fed comments about a summer pause.
  • Bond prices were slightly higher, and yields were stable.
  • Commodities rebounded with broad market gains.
  • The US dollar retreated after four weeks of solid gains.

In the previous week ending February 24, 2023, all markets declined while the US dollar gained. This week, the dollar declined and all markets gained. The dollar’s drop and the stock market’s rally were driven by remarks from Fed members regarding a pause in rate hikes over the summer.

Large-cap stocks ($SPX) gained 1.9% after finding support at the 200-day moving average. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) increased by 1.7%. Small-cap stocks ($RUT) advanced by 2%. Tech stocks ($NDX) concluded the week with a 2.7% gain. The S&P 500 high beta index (SP5HBI) rose 3.3%. Due to the rise in high-risk equities, the S&P 500 low volatility index (SP5LVI) declined 0.5%.

The US Treasury Bond total return index rose 0.1%. The yield on 10-year notes gained one basis point to reach 3.96%. The spot price of crude oil increased by 4.6%. Gold on the spot market (@GC) gained 1.7% as the dollar’s rise faltered. Commodities ($CRB) concluded the week up 3% with gains across the board. After four weeks of strong increases, the US dollar index (USDX) fell 0.7%.

Year-to-date, the S&P 500 high beta index ($SP5HBI) is up 16.3%, while tech stocks ($NDX) and small caps ($RUT) are up 12.3% and 9.5%, respectively. Crude oil (@WTI) is down 0.6%, commodities ($CRB) are down 1%, and the S&P 500 low volatility index ($SP5LVI) has dropped 3%.

The ensemble of our six systematic strategies is nearly flat year-to-date. Our PSI5TF trend-following strategy with 23 futures contracts (long and short) is slightly up year-to-date after gains of about 24% last year.

2. Chart Of The Week

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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price target levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No charts will be updated if market condition changes affect the charts’ levels and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer:  No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

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