Market analysis for the week of May 1, 2023. Major market indexes, large caps, ETFs, commodities, forex, and crypto. This report includes 25 charts and tables. Free access to the weekly summary. Access to the full report requires a Premium Articles or All-in-One subscription.
- Weekly Summary.
- Chart of the Week.
- Major Market Indexes.
- Russell 1000 Equities.
- Major ETFs.
- Commodity ETFs.
- International Market ETFs.
- Spot Currency Pairs.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum
1. Weekly Summary (April 24 – April 28, 2023)
- Stocks were higher after bullish economic data.
- Bond yields fell, and bond prices rose.
- Commodities ended the week lower.
- The US dollar was slightly lower in forex markets.
Stocks ($SPX) fell 1.9% in the first two days of the week but then rebounded 2.9% in the last three days after a positive GDP report and better-than-expected large-cap earnings, to end with a 0.9% gain.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) added 0.9%. Small-cap stocks ($RUT) fell 1.3%. Tech stocks ($NDX) finished the week with a gain of 1.9%. The S&P 500 high beta index ($SP5HBI) fell 0.6%. The S&P 500 low volatility index ($SP5LVI) gained 0.4%.
The US Treasury Bond Total Return Index was up 0.8%. The yield on 10-year notes fell 12 basis points to 3.45% due to expectations of cooling inflation by the end of the year. The spot price of crude oil was down 1.4%. Gold on the spot market (@GC) gained 0.5% on the back of a weaker US dollar. Commodities ($CRB) lost 1% amid rising volatility and uncertainty. The US dollar index ($USDX) was down 0.2%.
Gold (@GC) has the highest positive 252-day momentum at 5.1%, as measured by the price rate of change. Crude oil’s (@WTI) momentum is the most negative at -24.7%.
Year-to-date, tech stocks ($NDX) are up 21.1% but remain 20.1% below all-time highs. Gold (@GC) is up 9.4%, and the S&P 500 index ($SPX) is up 8.6%. Crude oil (@WTI) is down 4.2%. Commodities ($CRB) are down 3.5%.
The ensemble of our six systematic strategies is up 1.8% year-to-date. Our PSI5TF trend-following strategy with 23 futures contracts (long and short) is up 3.2% after gains of about 24% last year. The DBMF iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF is down 8.8% year-to-date.
2. Chart Of The Week
By subscribing you have immediate access to hundreds of articles. Premium Articles subscribers have immediate access to more than two hundred articles and All in One subscribers have access to all premium articles, books, premium insights, and market signals content.
Subscribe for free notifications of new posts and updates from the Price Action Lab Blog and receive a PDF of the book “Profitability and Systematic Trading” (Wiley, 2008) free of charge.
Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price target levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No charts will be updated if the market condition changes affect the charts’ levels and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data