Market analysis for the week of May 22, 2023. Major market indexes, large caps, ETFs, commodities, forex, and crypto. This report includes 25 charts and tables. Free access to the weekly summary. Access to the full report requires a Premium Articles or All-in-One subscription.
- Weekly Summary.
- Chart of the Week.
- Major Market Indexes.
- Russell 1000 Equities.
- Major ETFs.
- Commodity ETFs.
- International Market ETFs.
- Spot Currency Pairs.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum
1. Weekly Summary (May 15 – May 19, 2023)
- Stocks were higher for the week.
- Bond yields surged, and prices fell.
- Commodities ended the week higher.
- The US dollar’s rally continued.
US stocks were up for the week despite uncertainty about the debt ceiling negotiations and forecasts of a recession by the fourth quarter of the year.
Large caps ($SPX) finished the week with a 1.6% gain. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) rose 0.4%. Small-cap stocks ($RUT) added 1.9%. Tech stocks ($NDX) rallied 3.5%. The S&P 500 high beta index ($SP5HBI) surged 4.5%. The S&P 500 low volatility index ($SP5LVI) fell 1.7% as the rotation from low volatility to high beta stocks intensified, which is a bullish sign, at least in the short term.
The US Treasury Bond Total Return Index plunged 1.2% as a debt ceiling negotiation impasse impacted the fixed-income markets. The yield on 10-year notes was higher by 23 basis points, to 3.69%. The spot price of crude oil (@WTI) was up 2.2%. Gold on the spot market (@GC) fell 2.9%, with the US dollar index ($USDX) up 0.5%. Commodities ($CRB) gained 1.6% to end a four-week losing streak.
Year-to-date, tech stocks ($NDX) are up 26.2% but remain 16.7% below all-time highs. Gold (@GC) is up 8.2%, and the S&P 500 index ($SPX) is up 9.2%. Crude oil (@WTI) is down 10.7%. Commodities ($CRB) are down 5.6%.
The ensemble of our six systematic strategies is up 1% year-to-date. Our PSI5TF trend-following strategy with 23 futures contracts (long and short) is up 3.2% after gains of about 24% last year. The DBMF iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF is down 8% year-to-date.
2. Chart Of The Week
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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price target levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No charts will be updated if the market condition changes affect the charts’ levels and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data
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