Market analysis for the week of May 8, 2023. Major market indexes, large caps, ETFs, commodities, forex, and crypto. This report includes 23 charts and tables. Free access to the weekly summary. Access to the full report requires a Premium Articles or All-in-One subscription.
- Weekly Summary.
- Chart of the Week.
- Major Market Indexes.
- Russell 1000 Equities.
- Major ETFs.
- Commodity ETFs.
- International Market ETFs.
- Spot Currency Pairs.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum
1. Weekly Summary (May 1 – May 5, 2023)
- Stocks fell but ended the week off their lows.
- Bond yields and prices were unchanged.
- Commodities ended the week lower.
- The US dollar was lower in forex markets.
Uncertainty about the state of the US economy grew, with the latest employment report indicating a strong economy and after better-than-expected earnings for mega-cap stocks. The new data triggered another round of conflicting and widely diverging expectations about the odds of a recession this year and the possibility of a soft or hard landing. The signal-to-noise ratio in macroeconomic analysis has dropped close to zero, and traders and investors are mostly news-driven at this point.
Stocks ($SPX) initially fell 2.9% but rebounded 1.9% on the last day of the week after the strong jobs numbers to finish with a 0.8% loss.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DJI) ended the week down 1.2% after falling as much as 3.4%. Small-cap stocks ($RUT) fell 0.5%. Tech stocks ($NDX) finished the week with a gain of 0.1% after rebounding from a loss of 3.6%. The S&P 500 high beta index ($SP5HBI) fell 1.7%. The S&P 500 low volatility index ($SP5LVI) was down 0.4%.
The US Treasury Bond Total Return Index was up 0.1%. The yield on 10-year notes was unchanged at 3.45%. The spot price of crude oil was down 7.1%. Gold on the spot market (@GC) gained 0.9% on the back of continuing weakness in the US dollar. Commodities ($CRB) lost 2.4%. The US dollar index ($USDX) was down 0.4%.
Gold (@GC) is the only asset with positive 252-day momentum, as measured by the price rate of change. Crude oil’s (@WTI) momentum is the most negative.
Year-to-date, tech stocks ($NDX) are up 21.2% but remain 20% below all-time highs. Gold (@GC) is up 10.4%, and the S&P 500 index ($SPX) is up 7.7%. Crude oil (@WTI) is down 11%. Commodities ($CRB) are down 5.8%.
The ensemble of our six systematic strategies is up 1.1% year-to-date. Our PSI5TF trend-following strategy with 23 futures contracts (long and short) is up 2.8% after gains of about 24% last year. The DBMF iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF is down 8.7% year-to-date.
2. Chart Of The Week
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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price target levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No charts will be updated if the market condition changes affect the charts’ levels and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.
Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.
Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data
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