- The Data Refutes Gold Selloff Sensationalism December 5, 2023
Financial media loves sensationalism when there is a selloff in the markets, but the data often refutes it. Yesterday, there was a selloff in the precious metals markets following a strong rally. Gold (GLD) fell 2.2%, and silver (SLV) lost 3.7%. ...
- Announcing Hybrid Asset Allocation Signals December 1, 2023
We are pleased to announce the hybrid asset allocation signal service. The hybrid asset allocation strategy (HAA) has two components: an asset cross-sectional momentum strategy and a strategy with allocations to price series momentum and managed futures. Both strategies use ETFs ...
- Lack of Discipline and Objectives Might Cause Ruin November 28, 2023
Many traders and investors lack discipline and clear objectives. Spasmodic actions lead to losses and might eventually cause uncle point, or even ruin. Passive investors Let us start with passive investors because of the dominance of this style. Looking at daily price ...
- Mean-Reversion and Momentum Regime Switching November 22, 2023
This article describes an ETF trading strategy with mean-reversion and momentum regime switching. The Sharpe ratio of the strategy is greater than 1.
- Stock Market Diversification Underperforms Passive Indexing November 17, 2023
Many investors are searching for the next Nvidia, Apple, or Tesla. Naïve diversification may not capture the future big winners. These investors may be better off with passive index investing. Identifying the next big stock market winners is not trivial at ...
- Market Timing Does Not Predict Returns November 9, 2023
There is a recurring theme in the financial mainstream media about market timing being ineffective because a small number of large returns drive stock market performance. The conclusion is disconnected from the facts. Summary Market timing is often argued to be ineffective ...
- How Trading Has Changed Over The Years November 8, 2023
A summary of my latest YouTube video on how trading has changed over the years Trading is a complex subject, and analyzing how it has changed over the years requires a paper or even a book for an in-depth analysis. In ...
- ETF Seasonality Strategy with Low Exposure and Positive Skew November 6, 2023
The ETF seasonality strategy trades long-only SPY, TLT, and GLD ETFs.
- CTAs the Target of Short Squeeze in Equity and Bond Markets November 4, 2023
Commodity Trading Advisors, who were short the equity and bond markets, were the main targets of a major short squeeze this week. Systematic traders who were out of the market missed potential gains. Summary Rare weekly moves in the stock and bond ...
- Some Economists Are Claiming Victory For Tossing Coins October 28, 2023
Some economists are claiming victory for their predictions of no recession this year. Tossing a fair coin is hardly a prediction and does not justify a victory lap. Some economists predicted a recession this year, while others insisted there would not ...
