- Useful Stock Market Predictions December 26, 2023
Stock market predictions for gains in the coming year are not very useful because the odds of the stock market gaining in a given year are already high. Summary: Most stock market analysts forecast gains for the next year, especially after ...
- Bragging About Returns in Good Years December 22, 2023
Traders and investors with many years of market experience rarely brag about one highly profitable trade or one profitable year. They know markets are an uphill battle. There will be good trades, exceptional trades, and bad trades. There will also ...
- Overnight Effect Regime Change December 21, 2023
Do you remember the overnight effect? Most of us have forgotten all about it. There was a regime change in 2022. Most traders are looking for new anomalies. The overnight effect in SPY ETF was strong in the 1990s. After a ...
- Hybrid Asset Allocation Signals December 20, 2023
We are pleased to announce the hybrid asset allocation signal service. Hybrid asset allocation (HAA) employs two strategies: asset cross-sectional momentum and strategic allocation. Both strategies use ETFs to generate signals. The asset cross-sectional momentum strategy (CSMOM) and the strategic allocation strategy ...
- Permabears with Hundreds of Thousands of Followers December 16, 2023
There is this puzzling phenomenon on financial social media: some permabear accounts have hundreds of thousands of followers. Below are a few thoughts that might provide some clues. Since I joined Twitter (now X) in 2010, I have been a witness ...
- Changes To Market Signals For Next Year December 15, 2023
Below are the changes to the mix of Market Signals strategies for next year. The process of selecting strategies for the Market Signals ensemble focuses on two objectives: Generate reasonable risk-adjusted returns Provide a hedge during periods of elevated uncertainty Below is the performance ...
- The US Dollar is More Than a Reserve Currency December 14, 2023
The US dollar is more than a reserve currency. It is also a tool that helps politicians and central banks boost asset prices and avoid making unpopular decisions. The debasement of the US dollar may accelerate as central bankers and politicians ...
- Year-End Seasonality: Stocks, Bonds, Gold, and the US Dollar December 12, 2023
We look at year-end seasonality in stocks, bonds, gold, and the US dollar, and specifically the performance of these markets in the last trading week after Christmas. We buy at the close of the last trading day before the Christmas holiday ...
- The Asymmetry of Up Versus Down Days in the Stock Market December 7, 2023
Different market regimes may give rise to asymmetries that can persist for many years or even decades. This is the story of the up-versus-down asymmetry in the stock market. A financial media post yesterday included a chart that showed the asymmetry ...
- The Data Refutes Gold Selloff Sensationalism December 5, 2023
Financial media loves sensationalism when there is a selloff in the markets, but the data often refutes it. Yesterday, there was a selloff in the precious metals markets following a strong rally. Gold (GLD) fell 2.2%, and silver (SLV) lost 3.7%. ...