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Although based on the emails I receive it appears that technical traders are highly concerned about the differences that emerge from the choice of price series, i.e. whether they are adjusted for dividends and splits in the case of stocks or for ...

A randomization test indicates that a net return for 2013 close to 19% is required to rule out luck at the 95% significance level in the case of SPY trading. Below is the distribution of returns of 20,000 random SPY long/short trading systems during ...

When trading systems generated by computers are employed in actual trading chances are that their performance will be negative, or even disastrous, unless the process that generates these systems and its output are properly evaluated. This post provides an account of my experience in this area and ...

A GBPUSD position trading system was machined designed by Price Action Lab on June 5, 2012 and the results were published in this blog the following day. In this post it is shown that the system has returned 14% year-to-date so far, based ...

Successful speculators search for bubble opportunities while the unsuccessful ones complain about them and stay on the sidelines. Bubbles operate as wealth transfer mechanisms from those that join the game late – usually bears who give up and morph into bulls ...

This is an example of a machine designed trading system for the E-mini futures contract. The trading system was designed using data from 01/02/2001 to 12/31/2012.  Since the beginning of this year to 11/20/2013 the system return is 12.7% for initial trading capital of $50,000 per contract and this return turns ...

If one looks at a long-term chart of SPY it appears that the stock market is the best passive investment in spite of the -55% drawdown in 2008, which for some was a chance to average down and increase returns. ...

In a recent post I demonstrated that frequent short-term and intraday forex trading are negative-sum games when spread is included. In the case of intraday forex trading, this is true even at low spreads. Here I demonstrate that E-mini intraday trading is a negative-sum game ...

In a post yesterday in The Reformed Broker about the Barron’s cover story Josh Brown admits there are a few bubbles out there “in some areas of tech and in the IPO market.” In my humble opinion any argument that tries ...

Although the S&P 500 index is on an uptrend since March of 2009, technically speaking there have been at least 4 major trends during that period. Actually the uptrend that started in 2009 is more of a post hoc realization. The major ...