- How to Distinguish Between a Modern Technical Analyst and a Visual Chartist April 22, 2015
Visual chartists often believe they are doing technical analysis but in most cases what they do has little relation to it. It is not hard to distinguish between a modern technical analyst and a visual chartist.
- The P-Dow Indicator [Premium Articles] March 25, 2015
This is an indicator of market short-term reversals often mentioned in Premium reports. The P-Dow indicator is based on the p-indicator and it works like an oscillator: when its value rises above a threshold that usually means that the probability of a ...
- Fooled by Monthly Returns Statistics December 1, 2014
The title could have as well been “Fooled by Statistics”
- The Overnight Edge in AAPL is Gone But it Persists Elsewhere [Premium] May 25, 2014
Although the overnight edge is AAPL is gone, maybe for good, it persists in some other securities. Here is an example with a substantial overnight edge in 2014.
- Introducing the Gambler’s Fallacy Indicator [Trader Education] February 26, 2014
This is a simple indicator of momentum but it can also point to extreme levels in the sense of gambler’s fallacy.
- The Trading System Inversion Paradox [Premium Articles] November 4, 2013
This paradox arises because being a consistent loser in the markets is as hard as being a consistent winner.
- PSI – The Probability State Indicator [Premium Articles] September 27, 2013
A few days ago I was reading one of my old graduate texts on probability theory and noticed a section that I have forgot all about, or to be more precise, I did not pay attention to it at that time ...
- Fooled by Random Backtesting May 20, 2013
Backtesting trading systems on historical data is again becoming popular almost 30 years after it started being used by individual traders due to recent advances in web technology and server speed that allows its online implementation.
- The Golden Cross Trading System Lacks Intelligence May 3, 2013
Many have claimed success trend-following the markets. But a fair assessment of the situation requires to also count those who got ruined by it and this is not easy.
- The Main Cause of Failure of Some Popular Technical Trading Methods December 21, 2012
Trend-following based on indicators and classical chart patterns are two trading methods that were developed in mid 20th century using data from the equity markets mainly. These methods worked well for an extended period of time in those markets due ...