- More on the Perils of Statistical Hypothesis Testing [Premium Articles] October 11, 2015
Hypothesis tests based on one-sample t-tests and on bootstraps can be misleading, especially when returns are generated by an over-fitted trading strategy designed via machine learning and multiple comparisons.
- Perils Of Statistical Hypothesis Testing [Premium Articles] October 5, 2015
Statistical hypothesis testing results for the purpose of assessing the significance of trading and investment strategies must be carefully scrutinized because they are in most cases naive or can even be used to mislead the public.
- Asset Allocation, Adaptive Trend-Following, Randomness, Hurst Exponent [Premium Articles] September 28, 2015
Report on the state of Price Action Lab diversified portfolio, SPY adaptive trend-following, stock market randomness and Hurst exponent. Asset allocation The Price Action Lab diversified portfolio in SPY, TLT, GLD and DBC with weights of 40%, 40%, 10% and 10%, respectively, ...
- Performance of Two Strategies in Momersion Regimes [Premium Articles] August 24, 2015
In this article we analyze the performance of two popular mean-reversion trading systems in momersion regimes, i.e., when there is no clear indication whether a market is driven by momentum or mean-reversion. One conclusion is that one of the systems ...
- The Stock Market Trend is Still Strong According to Kelly Leverage June 3, 2015
Optimal leverage for continuous rebalancing of a passive SPY tracking strategy is still above its longer-term mean and far from trend reversal trigger levels.
- Five Myths About Data-Mining Bias [Premium Articles] May 29, 2015
Data-mining is widely used nowadays for trading algo development
- How to Distinguish Between a Modern Technical Analyst and a Visual Chartist April 22, 2015
Visual chartists often believe they are doing technical analysis but in most cases what they do has little relation to it. It is not hard to distinguish between a modern technical analyst and a visual chartist.
- The P-Dow Indicator [Premium Articles] March 25, 2015
This is an indicator of market short-term reversals often mentioned in Premium reports. The P-Dow indicator is based on the p-indicator and it works like an oscillator: when its value rises above a threshold that usually means that the probability of a ...
- Fooled by Monthly Returns Statistics December 1, 2014
The title could have as well been “Fooled by Statistics”
- The Overnight Edge in AAPL is Gone But it Persists Elsewhere [Premium] May 25, 2014
Although the overnight edge is AAPL is gone, maybe for good, it persists in some other securities. Here is an example with a substantial overnight edge in 2014.