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The Benner Cycle: Sure Thing or an Illusion?

Photo by Alesia Kozik

We tested the performance of the Benner Cycle and also examined its philosophical underpinnings. Is the cycle the “sure thing”, as its inventor claimed, or an illusion? How is the profitability of market analysis tools changing over time?

The Benner Cycle chart is posted frequently on social media. Samuel Benner came up with the chart in 1875 on a business card. It was an attempt to predict future cycles in the stock market.


The chart depicts the years of hard times (C), the years of good times (B), and the years of panic (A) in the stock markets. Benner suggested buying during C and selling during B.

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Specific disclaimer: This report includes charts that may reference price levels determined by technical and/or quantitative analysis. No charts will be updated if market conditions change the price levels and/or any analysis based on them. All charts in this report are for informational purposes only. See the disclaimer for more information.

Disclaimer: No part of the analysis in this blog constitutes a trade recommendation. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results. Read the full disclaimer here.

Charting and backtesting program: Amibroker. Data provider: Norgate Data

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